A growing argument in parts of Israeli and U.S. policy circles suggests that confrontation with Iran — or even regime collapse in Tehran — could unlock normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
That assumption is deeply flawed.
Regional dynamics in today’s Middle East do not support the idea that war with Iran would automatically lead to Saudi–Israel normalization.
Saudi Position: Palestine Remains Central
Recent remarks by Turki Al-Faisal underscore a broader and consistent Saudi position:
- Normalization with Israel is tied to progress on the Palestinian issue
- Strategic alignment against Iran is not enough
- Regional legitimacy still depends on addressing Palestinian rights
For Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, this is not simply a diplomatic choice — it is a strategic necessity.
As a leading figure in the Arab and Muslim world, he cannot:
- Ignore Palestinian grievances
- Risk domestic and regional backlash
- Undermine Saudi Arabia’s broader leadership role
A Shift in Gulf Perceptions of Israel
Beyond the Palestinian issue, a deeper shift is underway.
Several Gulf states are increasingly viewing Israel not only as a potential partner — but also as a source of regional instability.
Recent developments have:
- Raised concerns over escalation risks
- Increased skepticism about Israeli strategic unpredictability
- Complicated the narrative of a unified anti-Iran bloc
Quietly, a new perception is emerging:
Israel can be as destabilizing to regional order as Iran under certain conditions.
Normalization Is About Stability — Not Just Alignment
Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman prioritize:
- Regional stability
- Economic security
- Controlled escalation
Even in a scenario where Iran is weakened:
- Instability would likely increase in the short term
- Regional risks would remain high
- Public opinion would still constrain political decisions
This means normalization is not automatic —
it is conditional on broader regional calm and political resolution.
The Palestinian Issue: Still the Core Conflict
While Israeli policymakers often frame Iran as the central strategic challenge, much of the Arab and Muslim world sees the Palestinian issue differently:
- As the region’s core unresolved conflict
- As a source of political legitimacy
- As a driver of regional narratives
Iran has consistently leveraged this issue to:
- Justify its regional posture
- Expand influence
- Frame itself as a defender of Palestinian rights
Ignoring the Palestinian issue does not weaken Iran —
it strengthens its strategic narrative.
Lessons From the Abraham Accords
The normalization agreement between the UAE and Israel offers an important lesson.
The deal was not purely transactional.
It was linked to:
- Israel’s commitment to suspend annexation plans in the West Bank
- A broader effort to reduce tensions
This demonstrates a key principle:
Normalization requires political concessions — not just strategic alignment.
Regional Implications: Egypt and Jordan Factor
Progress on the Palestinian issue would also impact Israel’s relations with existing partners:
- Egypt
- Jordan
Both countries maintain peace treaties with Israel, but:
- Public opinion has become increasingly critical
- Political pressure has grown
- Stability of these relationships depends on managing Palestinian tensions
Conclusion: No Shortcut Through Tehran
The idea that war with Iran could deliver Saudi–Israel normalization is based on a misunderstanding of regional priorities.
The reality is clear:
- Military confrontation does not replace political resolution
- Strategic alignment does not override public legitimacy
- Regional stability requires addressing core conflicts
The path to normalization runs through the Palestinian issue — not through Iran.
Until that reality is acknowledged, expectations of rapid geopolitical realignment will remain disconnected from the region’s political and social dynamics.
