The situation continues to deteriorate for Ukraine, as Moscow appears to hold the upper hand in various regions.

Russia is advancing in critical areas along the eastern and southeastern frontlines, while simultaneously launching relentless aerial assaults on Ukrainian urban centers.

Additionally, Moscow is gearing up for a counteroffensive in the Kursk region, where Ukraine achieved its only significant military victory this year. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, nearly 50,000 Russian troops have been deployed to Kursk, a number that has been augmented by the arrival of North Korean forces.

George Barros from the Institute for the Study of War stated in an interview with CNN that “the Russians currently possess the initiative along the frontlines, effectively capitalizing on tactical advantages and reinforcing them.” Barros, who oversees the Russia and Geospatial Intelligence teams at the Washington, D.C.-based conflict monitoring organization, emphasized that Russia’s battlefield superiority hampers Ukraine’s ability to mount a counteroffensive.

The Russians are taking the initiative, compelling the Ukrainians to react. This is detrimental, as being perpetually on the defensive leads to losing conflicts. It results in being cornered, forcing one to select from a range of unfavorable choices, Barros noted.

The circumstances are particularly critical in Kupiansk. This vital northeastern city is once again in jeopardy of being recaptured by Russia after its liberation by Ukrainian forces in September 2022, following over six months of Russian control.

Kupiansk is strategically located at the intersection of two significant supply routes and the Oskil River, which serves as a crucial defensive barrier in the region. Capturing Kupiansk would facilitate Russia’s advance deeper into the Kharkiv area, thereby increasing the pressure on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which has been subjected to near-daily assaults from Russian drones and missiles.

On Friday, the Russian state news agency Tass reported that Russian troops had reached the outskirts of the city, although Ukrainian officials maintained that Kupiansk was still fully under their control.

Concurrently, Ukraine is facing challenges in preventing Russian advances further south, particularly around the city of Kurakhove, which has been encircled on three sides for several months. Earlier this week, President Zelensky described the situation in Kurakhove as “the most difficult area” along the frontline.

While Russia appears ready to capture the city in the near future, Barros indicated that this may not represent a strategically critical setback for Kyiv, as it will not greatly affect its capacity to defend the broader area.

Ukraine has mounted a strong defense in the region over recent months, despite experiencing some territorial losses.

Kurakhove is located approximately 40 kilometers (25 miles) south of Pokrovsk, a vital logistical center that has been a target for Russia for several months. By late summer, the fall of Pokrovsk seemed almost inevitable. However, Ukrainian forces have, for the time being, succeeded in thwarting Russian advances there, compelling Moscow to revise its strategies.

Barros noted that the situation in Pokrovsk exemplifies Russia’s inability to meet its publicly declared objectives.

“They aimed to capture Pokrovsk this fall, but they have now abandoned this operational goal and shifted their attacks in another direction,” Barros stated.

“It’s not solely a failure on the part of the Russians. It is also indicative of a robust Ukrainian defense,” he added.

Since taking Avdiivka in early 2024, Russia has only managed to push approximately 30 to 40 kilometers (18 to 25 miles) further into Ukrainian territory, a minimal gain considering the significant costs incurred by the Russian military.

According to the ISW’s analysis of visual evidence from the battlefield, Moscow has lost around five divisions’ worth of mechanized equipment, including hundreds of tanks and armored personnel carriers, in the Pokrovsk area over the past year.

Losing five divisions’ worth of tanks and personnel carriers over a year while only advancing approximately 40 kilometers is a significant underperformance, especially when compared to other major mechanized offensives of the 21st century and the notable battles of World War II, Barros remarked.

The conflict has become a war of attrition—yet how much longer can this continue?

Since the onset of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has consistently found itself at a disadvantage in terms of resources and manpower, despite support from its allies.

Russia possesses superior weaponry, ammunition, and personnel.

President Vladimir Putin’s strategy seems focused on gradually depleting Ukraine’s resources through superior firepower and financial investment, while also attempting to exhaust the resolve of its Western partners.

However, many analysts suggest that Putin’s window to realize this strategy is limited, particularly given the significant losses Russia is incurring to achieve even minor territorial gains.

The economic strain of the conflict on Russia is becoming increasingly evident. Over the past two years, Russia has dramatically ramped up military expenditures, leading to signs of economic overheating: inflation rates are high, and businesses are experiencing labor shortages. In an effort to stabilize the situation, the Russian Central Bank raised interest rates to 21% in October, marking the highest level in decades.

Russia, despite having a larger population than Ukraine, is experiencing considerable losses, and the recruitment of new soldiers has become increasingly challenging. During the last instance of partial mobilization, a significant number of men left the country.

The recent arrival of North Korean troops may provide temporary assistance, but the material losses incurred could prove more difficult to replace.

Barros noted that the combination of economic challenges, a manpower shortage in Russia, and the loss of essential military vehicles necessary for their current warfare strategy are critical resources that could create substantial issues for the Kremlin if the current pace of conflict continues over the next year.

Ukraine’s ability to capitalize on these challenges largely hinges on the commitment of its allies to maintain support. The potential return of former President Donald Trump to the White House raises significant uncertainties regarding this support.

This week, Zelensky remarked that the war could conclude more swiftly with Trump back in office.

Barros emphasized that if the international Western coalition, particularly the United States, continues to support Ukraine over the next 12 to 18 months, there will be significant opportunities to disrupt Russia’s war efforts. The outcome could ultimately depend on whether the Russians prevail or falter.