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US Ties Rewarm as Washington Signals Path for Turkey’s Return to F-35 Program — If S-400s Go

By
Asif Shahid
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0
F-35 Lightning II

The United States and Turkey are holding their most serious talks in years on Ankara’s possible return to the F-35 fighter jet program, with Washington making clear that any reinstatement depends on Turkey no longer owning or operating its Russian-made S-400 air defense systems.

U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said in a statement on X that discussions are under way on both Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 project and the fate of the S-400s, describing the current dialogue as “the most fruitful” in nearly a decade.

“As laid out in US law, Türkiye must no longer operate nor possess the S-400 system to return to the F-35 program,” Barrack said, adding that the close relationship between President Donald Trump and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had created a “new atmosphere of cooperation” and raised hopes for a breakthrough in the coming months.

Turkey was removed from the U.S.-led F-35 consortium in 2019 after it proceeded with the purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system, which Washington says could expose sensitive data on the stealth jet to Moscow. CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s defence sector followed in 2020.

Ankara, which invested around $1.4 billion in the program and was slated to receive more than 100 aircraft while producing key components, has long called its expulsion “unjust” and has pushed either for readmission or financial compensation.

Erdogan: ‘We Have Not Given Up on the F-35s’

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly signaled that rejoining the F-35 program remains a strategic goal.

Speaking to reporters after a NATO summit in The Hague in June, Erdoğan said Turkey “has not given up” on acquiring the jets and has formally conveyed its desire to rejoin the program during meetings with Trump.

Technical-level talks have since resumed, alongside long-running Turkish efforts to modernize its air force with Eurofighter Typhoons, upgraded F-16s, and its own KAAN fifth-generation fighter project, expected to enter service later this decade.

Turkish officials argue the original S-400 purchase was driven by repeated U.S. delays and restrictions on selling Patriot air defense systems — a grievance Ankara still cites in public messaging.

S-400: Core Obstacle, Search for ‘Creative’ Solutions

For Washington, the condition is unequivocal: no S-400s, no F-35s.

US law under CAATSA bars advanced weapons sales to countries operating major Russian systems like the S-400, and successive administrations have insisted that Turkey must remove or neutralize the batteries to move forward.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently told Reuters that Ankara and Washington are “very close” to finding a way to lift the sanctions, hinting at “creative solutions” for the S-400s — such as long-term storage or relocation — while insisting they have not been integrated into NATO systems.

Some analysts and commentators have floated more ambitious ideas, including transferring the S-400s to a third country like Ukraine in exchange for F-35 access, though no such plan has been endorsed publicly by either government.

Domestic and Alliance Pushback

Barrack’s public comments have stirred criticism from several quarters in the US and Europe.

Members of Congress who have long opposed Turkey’s re-entry point to Ankara’s human-rights record, tensions with Greece, and ongoing security operations in Syria. Earlier this year, the State Department reiterated that US opposition to Turkey’s return remained in place absent clear steps on the S-400s.

On social media, Kurdish activists accused the ambassador of “selling out” US interests to Erdoğan, while some pro-Ukraine voices argued that any deal should include transferring the S-400 systems to Kyiv. Pro-Israel commentators, meanwhile, highlighted Erdoğan’s harsh rhetoric toward Israel and the West. (These reactions reflect online opinion rather than official positions.)

Regional partners such as Greece and Israel are closely watching the talks, wary that restoring Turkey’s access to fifth-generation fighters could significantly alter the balance of airpower in the Eastern Mediterranean if not paired with confidence-building measures.

What’s at Stake for NATO and the Region

A successful deal would:

  • bolster NATO’s southern flank at a time of heightened tensions in the Black Sea and Middle East
  • strengthen interoperability between Turkish and allied air forces
  • potentially smooth broader disputes over sanctions and defence cooperation

Failure, however, could:

  • push Turkey further toward Russian and Chinese defence suppliers
  • accelerate Ankara’s reliance on indigenous platforms like KAAN and Kızılelma
  • deepen long-standing mistrust between Ankara and key NATO capitals

For now, US officials are signalling cautious optimism while stressing that any solution must be “clear and permanent” on the S-400 issue. Turkish officials continue to talk up alternatives and sovereignty—while also making clear they still want the F-35.

The coming months will show whether the Trump–Erdoğan channel can turn this opening into a lasting reset, or whether the F-35 will remain the symbol of a fractured partnership.

Three Major anti-Taliban Movements Form Unified Political Platform, Call for New Constitution and Elections

By
Mian Anjum Nadeem
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0

The National Resistance Council for Afghanistan (NRF) says three major anti-Taliban political movements have reached a joint agreement and are now speaking with one voice to address the current political crisis in the country.

NRF spokesperson Abdullah Qarluq said the National Resistance Council for the Salvation of Afghanistan, the National Assembly for Salvation, and the Afghanistan National Movement for Peace and Justice will soon issue a joint statement outlining their unified stance.

According to the groups’ representatives, this is the first time that jihad-era leaders from the former government, alongside technocrats and other political figures, have come together under a broad umbrella. They describe the agreement as a “golden opportunity” for lasting peace.

The platforms include:

  • The National Resistance Council for the Salvation of Afghanistan (with figures such as Ahmad Massoud, Atta Mohammad Noor and Yunus Qanuni)
  • The Afghanistan National Movement for Peace and Justice, led by Hanif Atmar
  • The National Assembly for Salvation, led by Mohammad Mohaqiq, Abdul Rashid Dostum and others

Key points in the joint statement

The joint declaration calls for drafting a new constitution, paving the way for a political settlement, and holding both national and local elections. The groups argue that the crisis must be resolved through political dialogue and national consensus, warning that failure to do so could have “serious consequences for the Taliban.”

The statement says Afghanistan’s political crisis should be addressed through comprehensive negotiations backed by the UN Security Council, regional states and the international community. It calls for an internationally guaranteed roadmap, with monitoring of any agreement’s implementation.

The groups emphasize meaningful inclusion of women and youth in any future political structure and urge an end to rights violations, discrimination and forced displacement.

They also demand transparency in mineral revenues and called on countries that have suspended humanitarian aid to resume assistance under a “neutral committee.”

Background and Context

Since the Taliban returned to power, political opposition leaders, military commanders and former officials have relocated abroad and begun reorganizing in exile. Although divided in the past, figures such as Ahmad Massoud, Atta Noor, Dostum, Mohaqiq and others now appear to be moving toward coordinated political pressure.

Recent reports suggest Iran has encouraged some opposition leaders to consider dialogue with the Taliban, while Taliban officials—including senior cabinet members—have also visited Tehran.

Meanwhile, the Taliban face widespread criticism for restrictions on women’s rights, arrests of former officials, and alleged human-rights violations. The new opposition alignment is seen by analysts as an attempt to create a unified front ahead of any future negotiations.

After Chinese Nationals Killed, Taliban Move to Replace Local Tajik Fighters With Pashtun Units in Badakhshan

By
Asif Shahid
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0

The Taliban administration has begun replacing local Tajik-origin fighters in Afghanistan’s northern Badakhshan province with Pashtun fighters following the killing of five Chinese nationals inside Tajik territory, sources familiar with the situation say.

According to multiple local accounts, Taliban leadership has decided to disarm and relocate Tajik-origin fighters and shift control of mining revenues, land allocation and local taxation from Badakhshan-based members to officials linked with Kandahari Taliban networks.

Deployment of non-local Taliban units

Sources confirm that a Taliban delegation, accompanied by members of “Unit 01,” travelled to Darwaz district two days ago in order to arrest local commander Jummah Fateh, who reportedly fled before they arrived. Around 120 members of the unit were later seen in Shighnan and other areas moving back towards Faizabad.

Taliban fighters from Unit 01 have now been stationed in Shikai, Nusay and Maimay districts, where they are reportedly disarming local fighters or ordering them to relocate.

One local fighter in Baharak who had guarded Jummah Fateh was reportedly detained by Taliban forces.

Senior Taliban officials—including the deputy governor of Badakhshan, intelligence chiefs, and representatives from Kabul’s Interior Ministry and General Directorate of Intelligence—were also present in Darwaz, pushing local fighters to obey central orders.

Tighter control over border contacts

The Taliban delegation instructed fighters stationed near the Tajikistan border to end all direct contact or meetings with Tajik guards. From now on, all communication must be approved centrally, sources say.

Jummah Fateh has now been officially reassigned as Taliban governor of Dasht-e-Archi district in Kunduz, while his brother and followers were transferred from the Darwaz battalion to a new deployment near Jowzjan. However, some refused transfer and remain in hiding.

Possible leadership reshuffles

Sources believe Taliban supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada may soon remove Army Chief of Staff Fasihuddin Fitrat, which would signal growing internal tensions among Badakhshan-based Taliban factions.

The new Taliban governor in Badakhshan is expected to forcibly disarm remaining local fighters and impose tighter control over mining revenue, fueling anger among local ranks.

Link to killings of Chinese nationals

This reshuffling follows a series of incidents in which five Chinese nationals were killed near the Afghanistan–Tajikistan border. Three of them died in an attack in Ishkashim district allegedly involving Taliban-linked militants.

Sources claim the attack was connected to fighters believed to have links with Eastern Turkistan militants, despite Taliban denials about hosting foreign fighters.

Tajik authorities say border forces became involved after clashes near Nusay village, prompting Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to order increased security along the frontier.

Mining control and corruption concerns

Locals in Badakhshan say the Taliban Ministry of Mines continues to block permit applications and has halted local mining operations. According to sources, senior mining officials are being replaced with Kandahar-linked commanders as Taliban leaders seek tighter control over valuable mineral sites.

Several Badakhshan miners complain that their applications are deliberately delayed while access is quietly granted to others connected with Taliban authorities in Kabul and Kandahar.

Background

Badakhshan—bordering Tajikistan, China and Pakistan—is a strategically sensitive province historically associated with Tajik fighters, smuggling routes, and high-value mineral deposits.

Since taking power, the Taliban have faced regional pressure to ensure no Uyghur, Tajik or anti–Central Asia militants operate from Afghan soil—especially under China’s security concerns in Xinjiang and ongoing tensions with Tajikistan.

Recent incidents involving Chinese nationals have placed additional diplomatic pressure on the Taliban, prompting internal reshuffles and stricter border control measures.

South Korea Scrambles Fighter Jets After Chinese and Russian Warplanes Enter Its Air Defense Zone

By
Hammad Saeed
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0

South Korea says it scrambled fighter jets on Tuesday after Chinese and Russian military aircraft briefly entered its Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ) before leaving the area.

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), seven Russian aircraft and two Chinese aircraft flew into the zone around 10 a.m., but did not violate South Korea’s territorial airspace. The planes were identified and monitored, and South Korean fighters were deployed as a precaution, the JCS said.

Yonhap News Agency reported that the aircraft spent about an hour inside KADIZ near South Korea’s eastern and southern coasts.

Background and Context

China and Russia have expanded their joint air activity around the Korean Peninsula in recent years, seen by analysts as part of broader strategic cooperation and pressure on the United States and its regional allies.

The Korean Peninsula remains a heavily militarized zone where U.S. forces are stationed in South Korea, while China and Russia frequently conduct flights to signal military presence and challenge allied surveillance.

According to Yonhap, Chinese and Russian military aircraft typically carry out joint flights around the peninsula once or twice a year, though such activity has become more sensitive amid heightened tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing strategic coordination between Beijing and Moscow.

Inside M23’s Emerging ‘State’: How a Rebel Movement Is Building Power, Governance and a Parallel Future in Eastern Congo

By
Sadia Asif
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0
Congolese people carry their belongings as they flee from their villages around Sake in Masisi territory, following clashes between M23 rebels and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC); towards Goma, North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

In a wooden hall on the foothills of North Kivu, hundreds of men and women sit in neat lines—listening not to government instructors, but to commanders of the M23 rebel movement. It is the final day of a two-week “re-education” course.

M23’s leader, Sultani Makenga, asks a question that lands like a declaration: Can only force liberate Congo from misrule in Kinshasa?

The hall shouts back in unison: “Yes, Commander!”

This is not just training. It is the shaping of a political narrative—part of a broader project to transform a rebellion into something resembling a government.

Training citizens to believe in a new state

Participants learn how to handle weapons and perform basic military drills, but the program’s main focus is ideological: Congo’s history, the failures of governance, and M23’s vision of a new federal state rooted in discipline, sacrifice and “proper leadership.”

At the heart of this curriculum is a 32-page M23 charter—now circulating not only among fighters but also among civilians.

This is not merely armed rebellion; it is political education.

Diplomacy on paper, war on the ground

In Washington, a Trump-led diplomatic ceremony recently produced promises of peace between Congo and Rwanda. But the agreement did not include M23—one of the main actors on the ground.

A day after the signatures, heavy fighting continued in eastern Congo.

M23 took part instead in separate talks hosted in Doha—and meanwhile expanded control and recruitment back home.

Diplomacy may be happening in capitals, but the war is being decided in the hills.

The rise of a parallel administration

Over the past year, M23 has built structures that resemble a functioning state:

  • appointment of provincial governors and mayors
  • collection of taxes
  • issuance of travel visas
  • repair of roads
  • dispute-settlement mechanisms
  • its own financial networks

The goal is not simply to control territory, but to govern it.

Residents say the rebels have restored some order after years of chaos, yet strict rules and heavy oversight define everyday life.

A rapidly expanding military force

According to UN analysts, the group now has around 14,000 combatants—nearly triple the size of last year.

Some Congolese soldiers have defected; others joined after surrendering. UN investigations also point to modern weapons and training believed to originate from Rwanda—despite Kigali’s official denial.

M23 is no longer fighting just to survive; it is consolidating territory.

The mineral economy: the real battlefield

Eastern Congo is home to some of the most valuable minerals in the world:

  • coltan
  • gold
  • tin
  • cobalt

M23 has seized 45 mining sites, including the Rubaya mine, which alone produces 15% of the world’s coltan—used in smartphones, advanced electronics and aerospace systems.

UN investigators estimate the rebels earn up to $800,000 a month from taxation and smuggling networks through Rwanda.

Minerals aren’t just an economic resource—they are the engine of the war.

A conflict rooted in history and identity

This region has lived through decades of displacement, genocide trauma, and ethnic violence.

After the 1994 Rwandan genocide, militias flowed into Congo, followed by Rwandan forces. A spiral of wars eventually killed millions.

Today, M23—dominated by ethnic Tutsis—claims to defend communities in the east and accuses Kinshasa of abandoning them, echoing grievances that fueled earlier rebellions.

History here never ends—it mutates.

The future: federation or fragmentation?

Analysts warn that if peace talks collapse and M23 solidifies its authority, Congo may face two possible futures:

1️⃣ a weak federal state
2️⃣ or a de facto partition

Either scenario reshapes Congo’s national identity—and regional geopolitics.

As one researcher put it: “This is not merely rebellion; it is state-formation.”

Life under M23: order and fear

Ten months into rebel control, residents report better security on the streets of Goma and Bukavu—but also fear, surveillance and restrictions.

“You can walk at night now,” one resident says. “But you must follow the rules. Otherwise—be careful.”

A calmer city, but an anxious society.

M23’s project can be summarized in one line:

Build a state where the government collapsed—and keep it.

 

Clashes Intensify on Cambodia–Thailand Border as Both Sides Vow to Defend Sovereignty

By
Hammad Saeed
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0
Displaced people gather inside a temporary shelter amid deadly clashes between Thailand and Cambodia along a disputed border area, in Buriram province, Thailand.

Fighting along the disputed border between Cambodia and Thailand escalated on Tuesday, with both Southeast Asian neighbours accusing each other of triggering renewed clashes and pledging not to back down in defending their territorial sovereignty. The violence resumed on Monday, raising fresh questions about the fate of a fragile ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump in July.

Former Cambodian leader Hun Sen said his country had waited 24 hours to honour the ceasefire before launching counter-attacks. Writing on Facebook, Hun Sen claimed Cambodia “needs peace” but was “forced to act in defence of its territory,” adding that reinforced bunkers and weapons had given Cambodian forces an advantage against what he called an “attacking enemy.”

Thai military reports wider fighting

Thai military officials said clashes had spread across at least five border provinces. They accused Cambodian forces of using artillery, rocket launchers and bomb-dropping drones to strike Thai positions.

Rear Admiral Sorsant Kongsieree, a spokesperson for Thailand’s defence ministry, said Thailand was committed to protecting its sovereignty and territorial integrity and would take all necessary military measures.

Civilian and military casualties

Cambodia’s defence ministry accused Thailand of “brutal and illegal actions,” saying nine civilians had been killed and 20 seriously wounded since Monday. Thai authorities reported that three soldiers had been killed, while 29 people were injured.

Hun Sen’s son also criticised Bangkok, saying Thailand should not use “sovereignty as a pretext to attack civilian villages.”

Mass evacuations

Both governments said hundreds of thousands of residents had been evacuated from border areas as the clashes intensified.

Tensions have risen since last month, when Thailand suspended de-escalation measures agreed during a Trump-hosted summit. The move came after a Thai soldier was injured by a landmine Bangkok alleged Cambodia had recently planted.

The latest fighting is the most serious since a five-day exchange of rockets and heavy artillery in July, which left at least 48 people dead and displaced 300,000 before Trump intervened to negotiate a ceasefire.

Long-standing border dispute

Cambodia and Thailand have claimed overlapping areas along their 817-kilometre land border for more than a century. Disputes surrounding ancient temple sites and undefined frontier points have repeatedly fuelled nationalism and sporadic armed clashes, including a deadly week of artillery exchanges in 2011.

Analysts note that Thailand holds a clear advantage in military capability, with a larger defence budget, more advanced weapons and fighter aircraft providing air support to ground forces. However, diplomatic ties between the two countries have sharply deteriorated, and there is little clarity on how the ceasefire can be restored.

China’s New Aircraft Carrier ‘Fujian’ Brings Beijing Closer to Challenging US Naval Power in the Pacific

By
Asif Shahid
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0

Experts say China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, launched in November 2025, is far more advanced than the country’s previous two carriers, marking a significant step in Beijing’s quest to challenge US naval dominance in the Western Pacific.

Weighing around 80,000 tons and named after the Chinese province closest to Taiwan, the carrier can host up to 70 aircraft at a time, including fighter jets, helicopters and early-warning aircraft capable of detecting threats at long range, coordinating air defence and striking distant targets.

A leap toward US-level capability

Fujian is China’s first carrier equipped with a flat flight deck and electromagnetic catapults, enabling the launch of heavier aircraft with greater weapons and fuel loads—technology previously available only to the United States.

According to Taiwan-based defence experts, this capability lifts China’s carrier strike groups to a new level well beyond its earlier carriers, Liaoning and Shandong.

Xi Jinping’s naval vision

Chinese state media have called Fujian a major milestone in the country’s naval development. Reports say President Xi Jinping personally approved the decision to install electromagnetic catapults and attended the carrier’s high-profile commissioning ceremony dressed in military uniform while praising pilots as “heroes.”

Xi has repeatedly asserted that the Pacific Ocean is “big enough for both China and the United States,” signalling Beijing’s ambition to achieve strategic parity.

Regional concerns and US response

Analysts warn that Fujian poses emerging risks to Taiwan’s eastern front from the Pacific side. However, US military bases in Okinawa, South Korea, Guam and the Philippines maintain strong counter-strike capabilities.

By comparison, all 11 US aircraft carriers are nuclear-powered and heavier than Fujian. Experts note that China’s limited overseas bases and Fujian’s diesel engines will require frequent refuelling, constraining its sustained combat range.

Toward a maritime arms race

Despite the growing role of long-range missiles and drones, satellite imagery shows China is already building a fourth carrier and pursuing plans for nuclear-powered platforms.

Some analysts say this trajectory points toward an accelerating naval arms race between the world’s two largest powers.

As one Taiwan-based defence researcher told the New York Times, “The risks exist on both sides—whether it’s China or the United States.”

US Weapons Left in Afghanistan Now Integral to Taliban Defense and Used in Pakistan Attacks, SIGAR Report Says

By
Mian Anjum Nadeem
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0

The US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has revealed that the United States spent around $144 billion on reconstruction during the 20-year Afghan war, but left behind military equipment worth billions of dollars during the sudden 2021 withdrawal—equipment that has now become part of the Taliban’s military capability and regional influence.

$7 billion in US military equipment abandoned

According to SIGAR, the United States left behind nearly $7 billion in military hardware—including weapons, vehicles and aircraft—most of which was originally supplied to the Afghan National Security Forces during the two decades of US presence. The report notes that all of this equipment had been financed by American taxpayers and is now benefiting the Taliban and other militant groups.

Massive US investment in Afghan security forces

The report states that more than $31 billion was spent on Afghan security forces, including the supply of 96,000 ground combat vehicles, over 23,000 multi-purpose mobility vehicles, more than 427,000 weapons, 17,000 night-vision devices and 162 aircraft. Prior to the fall of Kabul, the Afghan forces had 162 US-made aircraft, of which 131 were operational.

Pakistan says US weapons now fuel terrorism

Pakistan has repeatedly expressed concern that US-supplied weapons have been transferred by the Taliban to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and are being used against security forces in Pakistan. Islamabad argues that the surge in militant attacks on its soil is directly linked to modern equipment obtained from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover.

Earlier this year, the United Nations also reported that the Taliban continues to provide shelter, operational support and weapons to the TTP despite Pakistan’s objections.

Taliban deny accusations

The Taliban government rejects these allegations, claiming that Afghan territory is not being used against any neighboring country and describing terrorism in Pakistan as an “internal issue” of Islamabad.

Videos and field assessments

Footage from recent border clashes indicates that Taliban fighters are using mostly light and medium-range US-made weapons, including M-series rifles, machine guns, RPGs and night-vision devices. Military experts confirm this trend and say that such weapons have already made their way into Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian markets through smuggling and black-market networks.

Black market spread and regional risk

Experts argue that weapons abandoned after the US withdrawal have gone the same route as Soviet-era arms—widely trafficked and sold commercially after the Soviet exit in the 1980s. According to analysts, the Taliban consider these weapons as “war gains,” making any US attempt to reclaim them practically impossible.

Islamabad remains concerned

Pakistan maintains that the uncontrolled flow of advanced US weapons into militant hands has increased the threat of insurgency within its territory. Islamabad believes that any US initiative aimed at retrieving or neutralizing such arms would contribute to regional security, although such a move appears increasingly unlikely due to the widespread dispersion of the weapons.

Trump’s New Security Strategy Pivots Hard to China, Economic Nationalism — and India-Focused South Asia

By
Asif Shahid
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0
President Donald Trump speaks at an event to sign the Laken Riley Act, legislation requiring the detention of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally who are accused of theft, at the White House, in Washington, U.S.

The White House has released President Donald Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS), a 33-page document that sharply narrows America’s global ambitions, casts China as the principal long-term rival, and openly pressures allies to fall in line with a more transactional U.S. agenda.

Framed as a corrective to “globalism” and decades of overreach, the strategy rejects the idea of permanent U.S. global dominance and instead defines a tight list of “core, vital national interests” — from a secure Western Hemisphere to a “free and open Indo-Pacific” and continued American edge in critical technologies like AI, biotech and quantum.

It also makes clear that, in South Asia, Washington’s center of gravity is now India. Pakistan and Afghanistan do not appear in the text at all.

Break with the post–Cold War consensus

The document opens with a blistering critique of U.S. foreign policy since the 1990s, accusing “elites” of chasing an “undesirable and impossible” goal of ruling the world while hollowing out the very industrial and middle-class base on which U.S. power depends.

Instead, the strategy says America’s foreign policy will be judged against a narrow checklist:

  • Survival and safety of the U.S. as a sovereign republic.
  • Protection of the homeland from military attack and “hostile foreign influence,” including predatory trade, propaganda and cultural subversion.
  • Full control of borders and migration flows.
  • The world’s strongest military, nuclear deterrent and energy sector.
  • A robust industrial base and reindustrialization as “highest priority” economic policy.

Longstanding language about upholding a “rules-based international order” is replaced by repeated references to core interests, borders, and economic security.

Economic security at the heart of national security

More than recent strategies under either party, the NSS fuses domestic economic policy with grand strategy:

  • It declares that reindustrializing the U.S. economy and unleashing domestic energy production are central to national power, not just prosperity.
  • It ties Trump’s tax cuts, deregulation and pushback against “DEI” directly to restoring institutional “competence” and competitiveness.
  • It calls for protecting supply chains and intellectual property and confronting “predatory” practices by foreign competitors — a thinly veiled reference to China.

Foreign policy, the document argues, must stop “allowing allies and partners to offload the cost of their defense onto the American people,” and must stop accepting trade and financial arrangements that damage the U.S. middle class.

Re-bargaining the deal with allies

Allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific are put on notice: Washington wants their help, but on new terms.

Europe and NATO

In Europe, the U.S. promises to “support our allies in preserving the freedom and security of Europe” — but also insists the continent must assume primary responsibility for its own defense as “aligned but sovereign nations.”

The strategy explicitly warns against NATO becoming a “perpetually expanding alliance,” a subtle but significant departure from the open-door language favored by many European governments.

Beyond defense, the document criticizes European migration policies, censorship trends and demographic decline, and speaks favorably of “patriotic European parties” — a notable ideological tilt that could sharpen tensions with several EU governments.

Indo-Pacific allies

In Asia, the tone is both reassuring and demanding. The U.S. vows to help “keep the Indo-Pacific free and open,” preserve freedom of navigation, and deny aggression inside the First Island Chain — the arc of territory from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines.

But it also pushes allies such as Japan, South Korea and Australia to:

  • Spend more on defense,
  • Grant expanded access to ports and facilities, and
  • Invest in specific deterrent capabilities aimed at China.

The message: Washington still sees itself as the backbone of deterrence, but wants others to carry more weight — financially, politically and militarily.

China at the center of the new strategy

China occupies pride of place in the strategy and is clearly labeled the primary systemic competitor.

The document argues that three decades of “mistaken” engagement made China richer but “neither freer nor more peaceful,” and that the U.S. must now push for a “rebalanced, reciprocal relationship” that focuses on non-sensitive trade while confronting Beijing on five fronts:

  1. Predatory subsidies and overcapacity that distort global markets.
  2. IP theft and industrial espionage.
  3. Supply-chain vulnerabilities, including critical minerals.
  4. Fentanyl precursor exports fueling the U.S. drug crisis.
  5. Propaganda and cultural influence operations.

On the security side, the strategy:

  • Reaffirms opposition to any unilateral change of the Taiwan status quo.
  • Calls for preserving U.S. military “overmatch” and building a posture that can deny aggression in the First Island Chain.
  • Highlights the South China Sea as a potential choke point where coercion could threaten one-third of global shipping — and calls for deeper cooperation from “India to Japan and beyond” to keep those lanes open.

Rather than full decoupling, the NSS sketches a model of managed coexistence plus hard deterrence: economic pushback, supply-chain reshoring, and tech controls, paired with a more muscular regional military posture.

South Asia: India elevated, Pakistan and Afghanistan sidelined

Nowhere is the strategy’s strategic reframing more visible than in South Asia.

  • The terms “South Asia,” “Pakistan,” and “Afghanistan” do not appear in the document.
  • India, by contrast, is referenced repeatedly — both as a key Indo-Pacific partner and as a pivotal actor in the broader Global South.

The NSS calls for:

  • Strengthening commercial relations with India.
  • Deepening defense and strategic cooperation, notably via the Quad alongside Japan and Australia.
  • Enlisting India, alongside European and Asian allies, in competing with China for infrastructure, investment and critical minerals in the Global South.

The absence of Pakistan and Afghanistan signals a major downgrade. Regional issues that once dominated U.S. agendas — cross-border militancy, Afghan stability, India-Pakistan crisis management — are no longer framed as central to American “vital interests.”

Instead, the region is viewed primarily through:

  • An Indo-Pacific maritime lens (sea lanes, chokepoints, China’s naval presence), and
  • A Global South economic lens (infrastructure, supply chains, and competition with China’s Belt and Road–style initiatives).

For New Delhi, the strategy is both opportunity and obligation: India is given an upgraded role, but also clear expectations that it will spend more on defense, align more closely on tech and supply-chain policy, and shoulder more responsibility in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia.

For Islamabad and Kabul, the signal is sobering: unless terrorism or nuclear risk spikes in ways that directly touch U.S. homeland security or great-power competition, Washington’s strategic gaze is drifting elsewhere.

A narrower, harder U.S. posture

Taken together, the 2025 National Security Strategy describes a United States that:

  • Defines fewer vital interests,
  • Puts economic and industrial power at the center of security,
  • Treats China as the primary, enduring challenger,
  • Leans heavily on like-minded allies — especially in Europe and the Indo-Pacific — but on more explicitly American terms, and
  • Reimagines South Asia with India at the core and Pakistan and Afghanistan on the margins.

Whether allies, rivals and regional actors adapt to this sharper, more transactional U.S. posture will go a long way toward determining how stable — or turbulent — the coming decade becomes.

US Presses Europe to Take Over NATO Defense by 2027

By
Sadia Asif
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0
NATO logo and flag

 

The Pentagon has delivered a blunt message to European diplomats this week: the United States wants Europe to assume full responsibility for NATO’s conventional defense capabilities — from intelligence to missile systems — by 2027. Several European officials immediately questioned the feasibility of the deadline, calling it “unrealistic.”

The message was conveyed during a high-level meeting in Washington between Pentagon staff overseeing NATO policy and multiple European delegations. If implemented, the shift would dramatically redefine how the U.S., a founding member of NATO, cooperates with its most important military partners.

Pentagon Concerned Over ‘Insufficient Progress’ Since 2022

According to officials present at the meeting, the Pentagon expressed frustration that Europe has not made the expected progress in strengthening its defense capabilities since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

U.S. officials warned that if Europe fails to meet the 2027 deadline, Washington may withdraw from certain NATO defense-coordination mechanisms, effectively reducing its operational role within the alliance.

Capitol Hill lawmakers have also been briefed on the Pentagon’s position, with some reportedly alarmed by the implications for transatlantic security.

Europe Pushes Back: “Money Alone Won’t Fix This”

European officials say that the proposed deadline does not reflect the operational and industrial realities on the ground. Beyond political will and increased spending, Europe faces structural challenges:

  • Insufficient production capacity in its defense-industrial base
  • Long delivery timelines for advanced U.S.-made systems Washington wants Europeans to buy
  • Gaps in high-end capabilities that cannot simply be purchased off the shelf

Even if Europe places immediate orders, several high-value U.S. weapons and defense systems would take years to deliver.

Intelligence: The Most Difficult Gap to Fill

The U.S. also contributes capabilities that cannot be replicated quickly — including strategic intelligence and advanced surveillance, which have been central to Ukraine’s battlefield successes.

A NATO official acknowledged that European allies have begun assuming a greater share of the continent’s security burden, but declined to comment on the 2027 deadline specifically.

“Allies recognize the need to invest more in defense and to shift more of the conventional burden from the United States to Europe,”
the official said.

The Trump Factor: Mixed Signals, Consistent Pressure

European governments have largely accepted former and current U.S. demands that they take greater responsibility for their own security. The European Union has set its own target of preparing the continent for independent defense capability by 2030, including improvements in air defense, drones, cyber operations, ammunition production, and other critical areas.

However, the broader U.S. posture remains clouded by political uncertainty:

  • During the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump frequently criticized European allies
  • He even suggested he would encourage Vladimir Putin to attack NATO countries that failed to spend enough on defense
  • Yet at the NATO Summit in June, he praised European leaders for supporting a U.S. plan to raise annual defense spending targets to 5% of GDP

This week, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau reiterated Washington’s stance at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting:

“It is clear that Europe must assume responsibility for its own defense.”

From Moscow’s Winter Streets to Syria’s Crumbling Coast: Inside the Exiled Assad Loyalists’ Bid to Ignite a New War

By
Mian Anjum Nadeem
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0

In a luxury Radisson hotel overlooking the frozen avenues of Moscow, two of Syria’s most notorious power brokers—Major General Kamal Hassan and billionaire Rami Makhlouf—are quietly drafting the blueprint of a new conflict. Once pillars of Bashar al-Assad’s authoritarian state, both men now live in gilded exile, stripped of the authority they enjoyed for decades. Yet the trappings of exile have not cooled their ambitions. Their eyes remain fixed on Syria’s coastal heartland, where they hope to rebuild an empire from the ashes of Assad’s fallen regime.

This is the story of a war the world assumed was over—yet one that may be preparing to return.

A New Battlefield Born in Exile

In his Moscow hotel suite, Rami Makhlouf—the tycoon who once controlled vast sectors of Syria’s economy—spends his days between prayer, writing, and phone calls to field commanders scattered across Syria, Lebanon, and the Gulf. On his desk lie three thick manuscripts on Islamic interpretation, drafted during years of isolation under house arrest in Damascus.

Makhlouf now describes himself as a man chosen for a divine mission.
“God gave me wealth and influence so I may lead my people in the final battle,” he told associates in voice messages circulated among Alawite networks.

Across town, in a quiet suburb, Kamal Hassan, Assad’s ruthless former military intelligence chief, lives in a three-story villa. His voice notes to old operatives sound like commands to a defeated army he still believes he can resurrect:
“Be patient, my people. Do not lay down your arms. The time will come.”

Both men share the same wound—loss of power—and the same dream: to carve out a new Alawite power base along the Syrian coast.

The 14 Underground Command Centers: Assad’s Last Legacy

In the final months of Bashar al-Assad’s rule, his security apparatus carved out 14 subterranean command bunkers beneath Tartous, Latakia, and other coastal towns. Conceived as last-resort fortresses in the event of Damascus’ fall, these bunkers now lie at the heart of a silent struggle.

Hassan and Makhlouf both want control of them.
Whichever man wins that contest will command the weapons stockpiles, the encrypted communications systems, and the hardened networks of officers who once defended the regime’s most strategic territory.

The question is no longer whether a new conflict is being prepared, but who will own it.

Two Rivals, One Goal: Rebuild Power from the Ruins

Kamal Hassan

  • Former head of Military Intelligence
  • Claims loyalty of nearly 12,000 fighters
  • Has spent roughly $1.5 million funding militias since March
  • Employs 30 former state hackers to sabotage the new government
  • Sees himself as the rightful custodian of Alawite “honor”

Rami Makhlouf

  • Once controlled over a third of Syria’s economy
  • Claims a force of 54,053 fighters, including 18,000 officers
  • Pays fighters $20–$30 per month, distributing millions through intermediaries
  • Frames his return as part of a prophetic end-times battle
  • Smuggles weapons and funds through networks in Lebanon, Russia, and the UAE

The two men detest each other but are bound by a shared desperation:
Neither can return to Syria without seizing power by force.

The Wild Card: Maher al-Assad

Perhaps the most pivotal figure in this unfolding drama is Maher al-Assad, the former commander of the 4th Armored Division and Bashar’s powerful younger brother.
He, too, is now in Moscow.

Despite exile, Maher still commands the loyalty of thousands of elite veterans across Syria. His business empire—protected through shell companies—remains largely intact.

Multiple former officers say the same thing:
“If Maher gives the order, thousands will mobilize overnight.”

Hassan and Makhlouf both want him.
Neither can control him.
And Maher has not yet chosen sides.

The New Syrian Government Strikes Back

In Damascus, the newly established government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa is well aware of the danger brewing abroad.
To counter the plot, it has deployed a man uniquely suited to the mission—Khaled al-Ahmad, Sharaa’s childhood friend and a former loyalist who defected in Assad’s final months.

Al-Ahmad’s task is surgical:

  • Meet secretly with former Alawite officers
  • Convince communities that their future lies with the new state, not exiled warlords
  • Undercut the sectarian narrative weaponized by Hassan and Makhlouf

The governor of Tartous, Ahmed al-Shami, confirmed the government is tracking the plotters closely:
“They lack tools, they lack capacity, and most importantly—they lack trust among the people.”

A Coast on Edge: Fear, Fatigue, and Daily Killings

In March, after a failed uprising in a coastal Alawite town, pro-government forces killed nearly 1,500 civilians.
Since then, kidnappings and targeted killings occur almost daily.

Ordinary Alawites—who suffered immensely under Assad’s rule despite being portrayed as its beneficiaries—are exhausted. They fear another war yet feel unprotected by the new government.

A former intelligence officer now living in Lebanon described the mindset driving militias toward renewed conflict:
“Our dignity can only be restored through blood. Maybe thousands will die, but sacrifices must be made.”

It’s the rhetoric of men who have lost everything—except their appetite for war.

Russia’s Changing Calculus: From Kingmaker to Distant Landlord

For years, Russia acted as Assad’s military backbone.
Today, Moscow’s priority is simpler: protect its coastal bases and avoid another messy Syrian conflict.

Russian officials have met separately with Hassan and Makhlouf, but have offered no support. Instead, they appear to be grooming General Ahmed al-Mulla, a senior Syrian officer with long-standing Russian citizenship, as a potential mediator—or spoiler.

President al-Sharaa raised the issue directly with Moscow during his October visit.

The message from Russia was clear:
No new war. No new Assad.

Money: The One Resource Both Plotters Are Running Out Of

Makhlouf’s assets are frozen under international sanctions.
Hassan’s personal networks provide limited funding.
Their fighters are poorly paid, poorly equipped, and increasingly skeptical.

Commanders on the ground admit openly:
“They pay us, we take it. But no one is ready to fight for them.”

Without a financial lifeline—or Maher al-Assad—neither man can launch a full-scale coastal revolt.

Is a New Uprising Likely?

Given the current dynamics:

  • Low public appetite for renewed conflict
  • Bitter rivalry between Hassan and Makhlouf
  • Russia’s refusal to back either side
  • Government countermeasures already underway
  • Exhaustion among Alawite communities

A large-scale uprising appears unlikely in the short term.

But the danger has not passed.

If Maher al-Assad throws his weight behind either man—or if coastal insecurity deepens—Syria could slip once again into a devastating sectarian war.

Conclusion: The Most Dangerous Silence Is the One Before a Storm

The world may believe Syria’s war has ended.
But in Moscow’s hidden suites and Syria’s tense coastlines, powerful exiles are preparing for a conflict the region cannot afford.

A regime has fallen.
A state is rebuilding.
And amid the ruins, the ghosts of Syria’s past are trying to rise again.

Peace or a Price? Trump’s Ukraine Deal Hits Impasse After Midnight Kremlin Talks

By
Muhammad Farooq
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0

A late-night round of high-stakes negotiations between U.S. envoys and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended without agreement on Wednesday, stalling President Donald Trump’s push for a sweeping peace plan to end Russia’s nearly four-year war in Ukraine.

The five-hour meeting inside the Kremlin’s Senate Palace — the first in-person session between Trump’s inner circle and Putin since August — produced what Russian officials called “some acceptable elements” but failed to resolve fundamental disputes over territory, security guarantees, and the future of Ukraine’s military.

Senior Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said the U.S. presented a “refined framework” for Trump’s controversial 28-point peace proposal, which has been revised repeatedly following intense backlash from Kyiv and Europe. While Moscow signaled cautious interest in humanitarian and economic components, Ushakov flatly rejected key provisions limiting Ukraine’s military and requiring concessions on contested territory.

“Core issues remain unsuitable,” Ushakov told reporters. “Russia cannot negotiate away realities on the ground.”

Those “realities” include Moscow’s control over nearly 19% of Ukrainian territory — an outcome Kyiv refuses to recognize.

Ukraine Pushes Back as U.S. Tweaks the Plan

The U.S. delegation — led by presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner — arrived in Moscow after a week of intense shuttle diplomacy that included a private session with Ukrainian officials in Miami. That meeting produced several changes to the proposal:

  • A permanent NATO ban softened to a 10-year membership freeze;

  • Proposed territorial transfers reframed as demilitarized buffer zones pending arbitration;

  • Control of reconstruction funds shifted more heavily toward Kyiv;

  • U.S. share of profits from frozen Russian assets reduced from 50% to 30%.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged the improvements but insisted that sovereignty and alliances remain “non-negotiable.”

“There will be no deal behind Ukraine’s back,” Zelenskyy warned during a visit to Paris.

Polls show 69% of Ukrainians support a negotiated peace, but 80% oppose ceding land.

Europe Splits as Pressure Mounts

European reactions have hardened in recent days. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz have urged Washington to remove clauses they say “reward aggression,” while Britain’s Keir Starmer backed a European counter-proposal requiring post-war arbitration over disputed territories.

Inside Brussels, officials warn of donor fatigue after more than €100 billion in aid since 2022 — yet insist any settlement must include Ukraine at the table.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg cautioned that ignoring Kyiv’s red lines risks “legitimizing the use of force in Europe.”

What Russia Wants

Putin set expectations low before the talks, accusing Europe of “sabotage” and claiming Russian forces had seized new ground in Donbas — a claim Kyiv disputes. His negotiating team presented its own four-chapter counterdocument covering peace terms, European security architecture, and U.S.–Russia relations.

Officials say Putin praised Trump’s “initiative” but repeated two non-negotiables:

  • Russia keeps full control of Donbas;

  • Ukraine’s status remains permanently neutral.

Analysts say the Kremlin believes time favors Moscow: Russian forces gained more ground in 2025 than any year since the invasion began.

Three Possible Outcomes

1. “Cold Peace” in 2026

A Korean-style armistice with demilitarized zones and reconstruction funding. Fighting stops but political disputes remain.

2. War Grinds On

Most likely scenario: continued fighting, no treaty, and mounting casualties as neither side concedes territory or neutrality.

3. Interim Ceasefire

A temporary U.S.-brokered freeze — front lines hold, humanitarian corridors open, but no legal settlement.

The Stakes Couldn’t Be Higher

Trump calls the plan “not easy, but necessary,” warning Ukraine risks “losing even more” if talks collapse. European leaders counter that a flawed deal could entrench Russian power for a generation.

With more than one million casualties since 2022, and Putin insisting territorial “realities” are not negotiable, the road to any sustainable peace remains perilously narrow.

The G2 Moment: How Trump’s Tweet Redefined Global Power

By
Sadia Asif
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0

A Tweet That Shook the World

Before meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping, U.S. President Donald Trump posted a short message on social media — written entirely in capital letters:
“THE G2 WILL BE CONVENING SHORTLY.”

That single phrase sent shockwaves through diplomatic and media circles. American commentators instantly decoded it as a reference to the world’s two largest economies — the United States and China — suggesting the rise of a new format, the G2, much like the G7 but with only two seats at the table.

Yet, behind this apparently casual remark lay a calculated signal. Trump was not merely talking economics; he was sketching a new map of global power — a return to a bipolar world, where only Washington and Beijing truly matter.

The Message Between the Lines

Trump’s statement did more than hint at economic cooperation. It sought to position China not as a rival to be contained but as an equal in the hierarchy of global power. By invoking the idea of “G2,” Trump appeared to accept the inevitability of China’s rise while simultaneously trying to frame it as a shared stage rather than a confrontation.

The timing and tone were deliberate. This was not a slip of the tongue; it was a message aimed at several audiences — Beijing, America’s allies, and perhaps most importantly, New Delhi.

India’s Discomfort with the G2 Narrative

In India, Trump’s post landed like a diplomatic jolt. For a nation eager to project itself as a rising superpower, the notion of a “G2” left no space for a “third.”

Indian analysts and media voices were quick to dismiss Trump’s remark as thoughtless or impulsive. Some accused him of flattering foreign leaders, others of destabilizing the delicate balance of international politics. Yet, beneath the criticism lay an unspoken anxiety: India had been sidelined in a world increasingly defined by U.S.–China competition.

While China built its power quietly — investing in technology, manufacturing, and global influence — India’s ambitions often outpaced its capabilities. It still relies on Europe and Russia for fighter jets, struggles under American tariffs, and depends heavily on the U.S. job market for its skilled workers. Despite Trump calling Prime Minister Narendra Modi a “great friend,” real policy breakthroughs remain scarce — and the unease, it seems, lies in New Delhi, not Washington.

Strategic Optics: From Seoul to Tokyo

Some observers found it odd that Trump invoked the “G2” concept while in South Korea, a nation still hosting U.S. troops. During that trip, he approved plans to assist Seoul in developing nuclear-powered submarines. Days later, in Japan, he addressed American soldiers alongside the country’s new prime minister.

But these gestures were hardly inconsistent. The U.S. continues to maintain a dense military network across Asia, even as it acknowledges China’s ascent. The competition remains intact, but so does the economic interdependence. For now, rivalry and cooperation coexist — a paradox that defines the 21st-century balance of power.

Regional Reactions: Anxiety and Assurance

While India’s media fretted over Trump’s tone, the rest of the region reacted with calm restraint. Even Taiwan, the player most directly exposed to Beijing’s ambitions, projected confidence. Its foreign minister noted that Taipei had “close contact and trust” with Washington and saw no reason for alarm.

Those who claim that Trump accepted China’s dominance overlook a crucial fact: the message came alongside a show of military resolve.

Power and Posturing: The Military Undercurrent

Just before the Trump–Xi meeting, the United States initiated two significant defense moves:

  • The first U.S. nuclear exercises since 1992, signaling strategic readiness.
  • Orders to U.S. forces in the South China Sea to conduct precision targeting drills using HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems).

According to CNBC, the exercises were intended to demonstrate Washington’s unwillingness to yield space in the Indo-Pacific. The HIMARS — built by Lockheed Martin and famed for their accuracy in Iraq and Afghanistan — symbolized America’s determination to stay militarily relevant even as it spoke the language of cooperation.

Trade, Minerals, and Mutual Need

At the heart of the Trump–Xi dialogue was the long-running dispute over rare earth minerals, vital to advanced technology and defense industries. Trump announced that the issue had been resolved, with Beijing agreeing to ease export restrictions.

China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that the two leaders reached “consensus on major economic and trade issues.” The ministry also revealed that Trump would visit China the following April, and Xi had been invited to the United States in return.

Meanwhile, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce suspended special port fees targeting U.S. naval ships — another gesture of détente.

A Recognition of Equals

The outcome was unmistakable: Washington had, perhaps reluctantly, acknowledged China as a true superpower. More importantly, it learned that Beijing cannot be coerced through pressure or intimidation.

The United States may browbeat allies like India or Canada into trade concessions, but with China, the rules are different — the only viable path is negotiation between equals.

Epilogue: A Tweet That Marked a Turning Point

When Trump later spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One, he called his meeting with Xi “excellent.” On a scale of zero to ten, he rated it a twelve.

Behind the bravado lay a simple truth: with one tweet, Trump had acknowledged a new world order — one in which the United States no longer stands alone, and the global stage has space for only two leading powers.

 

Putin’s Nuclear Saber-Rattling: Russia’s Strategic Drills Amid Ukraine War and Trump’s Peace Push

By
Sadia Asif
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Yars intercontinental ballistic missile systems
In a move that reverberated across global capitals, Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw a high-profile strategic nuclear exercise, dubbed “Grom,” on Wednesday, October 22, 2025. The drills, involving Russia’s nuclear triad of land-, sea-, and air-based forces, tested the country’s ability to authorize and deploy nuclear weapons. Conducted hours after U.S. President Donald Trump postponed a planned summit with Putin in Budapest, the timing of the exercises has sparked intense speculation about their intent. Are they a routine test of Russia’s deterrence capabilities, or a calculated message to the West amid the ongoing Ukraine war and Trump’s nascent peace efforts?

The “Grom” Exercises: A Display of Nuclear Might

The “Grom” (Thunder) drills are an annual event in Russia’s military calendar, designed to ensure the readiness of its strategic nuclear forces. On October 22, Putin participated via videoconference, receiving updates from Chief of the General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov. The exercises tested the entire nuclear triad, a cornerstone of Russia’s defense strategy, capable of delivering devastating strikes across continents. According to the Kremlin, all objectives were met, confirming the reliability of Russia’s command-and-control systems.The drills included:

  • Land-Based Component: A RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northwestern Russia, targeting the Kura test range in Kamchatka, near the U.S. border in eastern Russia. The Yars, with a range exceeding 11,000 km, can carry multiple nuclear warheads, making it a potent strategic weapon.
  • Sea-Based Component: The nuclear-powered submarine K-117 Bryansk, a Project 667BDRM Delfin-class vessel, fired an R-29RMU Sineva submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from the Barents Sea, demonstrating Russia’s ability to strike from its maritime forces.
  • Air-Based Component: Tu-95MS strategic bombers launched long-range cruise missiles, showcasing the air leg of the triad’s flexibility in delivering nuclear payloads.

The Kremlin emphasized that the drills were pre-planned and routine, aimed at maintaining the operational readiness of Russia’s nuclear deterrent. Yet, their execution amid heightened geopolitical tensions suggests a broader strategic purpose.

The Ukraine War: A Backdrop of Escalation

The “Grom” exercises unfold against the backdrop of the Ukraine war, now grinding through its third year. Russian forces have made slow but costly advances in eastern Ukraine, particularly in Donetsk, while Ukraine has mounted bold counteroffensives, including incursions into Russia’s Kursk region. The conflict has seen escalating Western support for Ukraine, with NATO countries supplying advanced weaponry like HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles. Russia, in response, has repeatedly invoked its nuclear capabilities to deter deeper Western involvement, with Putin updating Russia’s nuclear doctrine to allow for nuclear retaliation against conventional attacks threatening its sovereignty. The drills serve multiple purposes in this context:

  • Deterrence: By showcasing the operational readiness of its nuclear triad, Russia aims to dissuade NATO from escalating its support for Ukraine, particularly in response to Kyiv’s calls for long-range missiles like ATACMS to strike deeper into Russian territory.
  • Psychological Warfare: The widely publicized launches, with footage circulating on platforms like X, project strength to both domestic and international audiences. For Russians facing economic sanctions and battlefield setbacks, the drills reinforce national resolve. For Ukraine and its allies, they serve as a chilling reminder of the stakes.
  • Strategic Messaging: The exercises underscore Russia’s ability to escalate to catastrophic levels if pushed, particularly as Ukraine’s cross-border operations challenge Russian territorial integrity. This aligns with Putin’s rhetoric framing the war as an existential struggle against Western encroachment.

Trump’s Peace Push: A Delicate Dance Disrupted

Since his inauguration in January 2025, President Trump has made ending the Ukraine war a cornerstone of his foreign policy, promising a swift resolution through negotiation. His administration has initiated high-level contacts with Moscow, including a call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. A summit with Putin was planned in Budapest, Hungary, hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a leader with ties to both leaders. However, on October 22, Trump announced the summit’s postponement, citing the need to avoid a “waste of time” until both sides are prepared for productive talks.The “Grom” drills, conducted hours after this announcement, have fueled debate about their intent:

  • A Message to Trump? Some analysts interpret the exercises as a deliberate “taunt” to Trump, signaling that Russia negotiates from a position of strength. By flexing its nuclear muscle, Putin may be pressuring the U.S. to offer concessions, such as easing sanctions or limiting NATO’s role in Ukraine, as prerequisites for talks.
  • Routine or Strategic? The Kremlin insists the drills are routine, and their annual nature supports this claim. However, Putin’s personal oversight and the timing—coinciding with the summit delay—suggest a strategic intent to underscore Russia’s resolve. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that both leaders prioritize efficiency, but the drills may indicate Russia’s reluctance to compromise without significant U.S. concessions.
  • Impact on Diplomacy: The exercises complicate Trump’s peace efforts by reinforcing Russia’s hardline stance. Trump’s vision of a deal likely involves territorial concessions from Ukraine and guarantees of neutrality, but Russia’s nuclear posturing suggests it may demand recognition of annexed territories like Crimea and Donbas. The summit’s postponement reflects Trump’s caution, possibly awaiting clearer signals from Moscow or stronger domestic support for negotiations.

Global and Domestic Reactions

The drills have elicited varied responses, reflecting the high stakes of the moment:

  • NATO and the West: NATO is conducting its own nuclear deterrence exercises this month, creating a tense backdrop of mutual posturing. Western leaders, particularly in Europe, are wary of Russia’s actions, with some urging Trump to maintain a firm stance against nuclear intimidation. The drills reinforce concerns about escalation risks, especially if miscalculations occur in Ukraine.
  • Global South: Countries like China and India, which have maintained neutrality in the Ukraine conflict, are likely monitoring the situation closely. Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling may strain its partnerships with nations advocating de-escalation, while Trump’s peace push could gain traction if he positions himself as a mediator capable of averting a broader crisis.

Strategic Implications and the Path Forward

The “Grom” exercises highlight the delicate balance of deterrence, diplomacy, and brinkmanship in the Ukraine war and U.S.-Russia relations:

  • For Ukraine: The drills underscore the existential threat of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, potentially pressuring Kyiv to temper its military ambitions, such as reclaiming occupied territories. Ukraine’s reliance on Western aid makes it vulnerable to shifts in U.S. policy, especially if Trump prioritizes a quick deal over sustained support.
  • For Russia: The exercises reinforce Putin’s narrative of Russia as a great power capable of countering Western influence. By showcasing nuclear capabilities, Russia aims to deter deeper NATO involvement and secure leverage in peace talks. However, this risks further diplomatic isolation if perceived as reckless.
  • For Trump: The drills test Trump’s ability to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape. His peace initiative hinges on persuading both Russia and Ukraine to compromise, but Russia’s nuclear posturing suggests a high bar for negotiations. The summit delay indicates Trump is recalibrating, possibly seeking to strengthen his position through backchannel diplomacy or domestic consensus.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Chess Game

Russia’s “Grom” nuclear drills are more than a routine exercise—they are a bold statement in a world on edge. Set against the grinding Ukraine war and Trump’s ambitious peace efforts, the drills signal Russia’s readiness to escalate if its interests are threatened. For Putin, they are a reminder of Russia’s strategic weight; for Trump, they are a hurdle in his quest for a diplomatic breakthrough. As the world watches this high-stakes chess game, the path to peace remains fraught with risks, where every move could tip the balance toward resolution or catastrophe. The question now is whether Trump’s deal-making can defuse the tension, or if Russia’s nuclear shadow will cast a longer chill over Ukraine and beyond.

Rifts Emerge Within Indian Armed Forces After Failed Operation Against Pakistan

By
Mian Anjum Nadeem
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Retrieving wreckage of Indian Rafale fighter jet reportedly shot down by Pakistan in Aklian, Bathinda.

After the failed military operation against Pakistan, deep fissures have surfaced within the Indian armed forces. What began as a criticism from the Navy has now escalated into an open exchange of accusations between senior retired officers of the Indian Navy and Air Force.

The controversy began when Vice Admiral (retd.) Harminder Singh, former Deputy Chief of Naval Staff, wrote a sharply critical column in The Tribune India. In it, he labeled the Indian Air Force’s recent campaign “a continuation of failures,” alleging that despite possessing modern fighter jets like the Rafale, the Air Force failed to achieve its objectives against Pakistan.

He conceded that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) was “better prepared and in a superior tactical position” during the confrontation. Singh claimed that several Indian aircraft, including a Rafale, were shot down while still within Indian airspace — a result, he suggested, of “intelligence failure and ignorance of modern aerial warfare trends.”

Citing past incidents like the Balakot strike and the friendly-fire Mi-17 helicopter crash, Singh wrote that “claims of victory are repeated after every campaign, but history and records say otherwise.” He also questioned the Air Force’s resistance to the proposed unified tri-service command, and the rationale for investing billions of dollars in manned aircraft when, in his view, “future wars will be fought with stand-off weapons.”

Air Force Hits Back

In response, Air Marshal (retd.) Raghunath Nambiar of the Indian Air Force published a strong rebuttal, accusing Admiral Singh of making “unscientific and biased comments” that “distorted facts and harmed the relationship of friendship and trust between the three services.”

He dismissed Singh’s remarks about the Rafale as “superficial and unrealistic,” quipping that, “If Rafale is a wasteful investment, then the Navy does not need new aircraft and the Army does not need modern rifles.”

Nambiar admitted that all Rafale aircraft returned safely from the mission but added pointedly, “Even if one were half-damaged, that is part of war — this is not a walk in an air mission park.”

He further ridiculed the Navy’s reliance on BrahMos missiles, arguing that “an aircraft can change position at 800 km/h — a missile or a ship crawling at 15 knots cannot achieve the same operational flexibility.”

Defending the Air Force’s stance on the unified command, Nambiar cautioned that “targeting the Air Force in this manner is detrimental to national security.” He also rejected the demand for full public disclosure of operational details, stating that “what was done in Operation Sindoor must continue — not be explained.”

Analysis: Cracks in India’s Military Cohesion

This rare public spat between senior officers has laid bare the inter-service rivalries simmering within India’s defense establishment. Analysts say that the fallout from Operation Sindoor — which New Delhi publicly portrayed as a success — has triggered pressure not only within the military but also at the political level.

The candid criticism from within the armed forces undermines the official narrative of victory and raises questions about operational planning, inter-service coordination, and strategic priorities.

Observers warn that the growing divide among the three services could pose a serious challenge to India’s future joint warfare strategy and defense modernization plans — especially at a time when the region’s security environment remains volatile.

The 20-Point Peace Plan: Bold Vision or Flawed Blueprint?

By
Mian Anjum Nadeem
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A general view of the site of an Israeli strike on a house, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza.

As the 20-point plan gains traction as a comprehensive proposal to end the war between Israel and Hamas and establish lasting peace in Gaza, it has also sparked intense debate. While the plan is praised for its ambition and structure, critics argue that it may fall short of delivering a truly equitable and sustainable solution. Below are the most pressing counterarguments being raised by analysts, regional stakeholders, and human rights advocates.

  1. Imbalanced Concessions

The plan demands sweeping concessions from Hamas and the Palestinian population—disarmament, political surrender, and external oversight—while offering limited reciprocal commitments from Israel. Critics warn that this asymmetry could deepen mistrust and reinforce perceptions of imposed peace rather than negotiated resolution.

  1. Marginalization of Palestinian Voices

By excluding both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority from initial governance structures, the plan risks alienating the very communities it seeks to stabilize. Without legitimate local representation, any new governing body may struggle to gain public trust or enforce meaningful reforms.

  1. No Concrete Path to Statehood

Although the plan gestures toward future Palestinian self-governance, it lacks a clear timeline or commitment to statehood. This omission has drawn criticism from Arab and Muslim leaders who view statehood as a non-negotiable pillar of peace.

  1. Risk of Perpetual Foreign Presence

The proposed international stabilization force could become a long-term fixture in Gaza if not carefully managed. Without defined exit strategies or benchmarks for withdrawal, the force may inadvertently replicate the pitfalls of past foreign interventions.

  1. Oversight Credibility Concerns

The plan’s “Board of Peace” concept—potentially chaired by figures like Donald Trump or Tony Blair—raises questions about neutrality and effectiveness. Skeptics argue that such leadership could politicize the peace process and erode confidence among Palestinians and regional actors.

  1. Hamas Rejection Is Probable

Given Hamas’s historical resistance to disarmament and external control, its acceptance of the plan is far from guaranteed. Critics fear that a blanket refusal could trigger renewed violence or undermine the plan’s legitimacy.

  1. Vague Implementation Mechanisms

Key operational details remain unclear: Who verifies compliance? What happens if milestones are missed? Who enforces accountability? These gaps could stall progress or lead to disputes that derail the initiative.

  1. Perception of Foreign Imposition

The heavy involvement of Western powers and conditional aid may be perceived as coercive. Some Palestinians and regional observers worry that the plan reflects external interests more than local aspirations, potentially fueling backlash.

Conclusion: A Plan Worth Debating

The 20-point plan is undeniably the most detailed peace proposal to date. Yet its success hinges not just on its structure, but on its ability to earn trust, adapt to realities, and deliver justice for all parties involved. As the conversation continues, these counterarguments must be addressed head-on—because peace, if it is to last, cannot be built on silence or exclusion.

U.S. Engages Afghan Exiles and Eyes Bagram’s Return: A Strategic Dance in a Post-War Afghanistan

By
Mian Anjum Nadeem
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As Afghanistan navigates its fourth year under Taliban rule, the United States is quietly but actively shaping its post-withdrawal strategy through a multifaceted approach. A recent U.S. State Department report to Congress, titled *Plans to Support the People of Afghanistan* and submitted on September 22, 2025, reveals ongoing, regular engagements with officials from the fallen Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the sprawling Afghan diaspora. These interactions, coupled with President Donald Trump’s provocative push to reclaim Bagram Airbase, underscore a delicate U.S. balancing act: maintaining influence in a Taliban-controlled nation without formal recognition, while addressing humanitarian crises and strategic imperatives.

Details of U.S. Engagement

According to the State Department’s report, personnel from its Afghanistan Affairs Unit, based in Doha, Qatar, are meeting “regularly” with former Afghan government officials, Afghan diaspora representatives, and non-Taliban activists both in Afghanistan and abroad. The report specifies that these discussions aim to ensure that counterparts “understand the U.S. policy regarding Afghanistan” while gathering critical insights on the ground situation. These engagements cover a broad spectrum of issues: human rights abuses, media freedom, women’s rights under Taliban restrictions, and the treatment of at-risk Afghans, including journalists, activists, and former government employees.

The State Department also coordinates with international partners, including at the United Nations, to align on strategies that hold the Taliban accountable for commitments made under the 2020 Doha Agreement and to push for an inclusive political system. The Afghan diaspora, estimated at over 2.6 million worldwide with significant communities in the United States, Europe, and Pakistan, plays a pivotal role. Many diaspora leaders maintain deep networks inside Afghanistan, offering the U.S. valuable perspectives on Taliban governance, economic challenges, and security threats like ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K).

The Office of the Coordinator for Afghan Relocation Efforts (CARE) facilitates these interactions, focusing on the relocation of vulnerable Afghans, including Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) holders and their families, who face Taliban reprisals. Additionally, the U.S. engages non-Taliban activists in Qatar to monitor local dynamics and inform policy adjustments, ensuring a steady flow of intelligence without direct reliance on Taliban channels. While the report avoids specifics on meeting frequency or participant identities, it emphasizes a collaborative approach with foreign diplomats and regional partners to address issues like money laundering, terrorist financing, and migration flows.

These efforts reflect a pragmatic U.S. strategy: sustaining influence through soft power and diplomacy in a country where its military presence ended abruptly in August 2021.

Importance of the Engagements

The State Department’s outreach is a cornerstone of America’s post-withdrawal Afghanistan policy, serving both humanitarian and strategic objectives. First, it provides a critical channel for intelligence and policy refinement. Former Afghan officials and diaspora leaders offer nuanced insights into the Taliban’s governance failures—such as economic collapse, with Afghanistan’s GDP contracting by 27% since 2020—and security threats, including ISIS-K’s resurgence, which has conducted deadly attacks like the 2021 Kabul airport bombing. These perspectives help the U.S. navigate a complex landscape where the Taliban seeks legitimacy from neighbors like China and Russia (the latter formally recognized the Taliban in July 2025) while failing to curb terrorism or uphold human rights.

Second, the engagements amplify U.S. support for at-risk Afghans. The Taliban’s policies, including bans on women’s education and enforced disappearances of former officials, have drawn global condemnation. By partnering with the diaspora and ex-officials, the U.S. bolsters advocacy for these groups, facilitates refugee resettlement (over 90,000 Afghans have been resettled in the U.S. since 2021), and pressures the Taliban to moderate its stance. This aligns with UN-led initiatives calling for an inclusive Afghan government, a goal the Taliban has consistently resisted.

Third, the diplomatic outreach serves as a counterweight to the Taliban’s growing ties with regional powers. China’s Belt and Road investments in Afghan minerals and Russia’s recognition of the Taliban signal a shifting geopolitical landscape. U.S. engagement with non-Taliban stakeholders signals a “wait-and-see” stance on recognition, leveraging issues like aid, sanctions relief, and counterterrorism cooperation to influence Taliban behavior. This approach also mitigates regional instability risks, such as mass migration and terrorism spillover, which could destabilize allies like Pakistan and Central Asian states.

Finally, these efforts align with domestic U.S. priorities under the current administration. President Trump has emphasized resolving cases of detained Americans in Afghanistan, a topic raised during recent U.S.-Taliban talks. The diaspora’s advocacy strengthens these efforts, ensuring that humanitarian concerns remain central to U.S. policy, even as strategic debates—like the Bagram Airbase question—take center stage.

The Bagram Airbase Aspect

The State Department’s report does not mention Bagram Airbase, but its release coincides with President Trump’s high-profile campaign to reclaim the facility, a former U.S. military stronghold 40 miles north of Kabul. Bagram, which housed up to 40,000 troops during the U.S.-led war, was handed over to Afghan forces in July 2021 and seized by the Taliban a month later. Since then, it has become a symbol of lost U.S. leverage and a focal point of Trump’s Afghanistan rhetoric.

On September 18, 2025, during a press conference with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump declared: “We’re trying to get [Bagram] back… because they need things from us,” highlighting its strategic proximity to China’s nuclear facilities in Xinjiang, roughly an hour’s flight away. He escalated this on September 20 via Truth Social, warning: “If Afghanistan doesn’t give Bagram Airbase back… BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN!!!” These statements followed a mid-September U.S. delegation visit to Kabul, led by Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Adam Boehler and former Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, which focused on detained Americans but reportedly broached Bagram’s return.

The Taliban has firmly rejected these demands. Foreign Ministry spokesman Zakir Jalaly and chief spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid cited the 2020 Doha Agreement, which prohibits foreign military presence, and emphasized Afghan sovereignty. Mujahid urged “realism and rationality,” offering economic partnerships but no territorial concessions.

Unverified April 2025 reports of a U.S. C-17 landing at Bagram with intelligence officials were denied by both sides, and recent satellite imagery shows minimal Taliban activity at the base, which they use for parades and training.

The Bagram push reflects Trump’s transactional approach, potentially linking the base’s return to concessions like aid, sanctions relief, or the March 2025 lifting of bounties on Haqqani network leaders. Strategically, Bagram’s recapture could restore U.S. surveillance and rapid-response capabilities against ISIS-K and counter Chinese influence in Afghan infrastructure.

However, it risks escalating tensions with the Taliban and undermining the State Department’s diplomatic efforts with the diaspora and former officials. These engagements prioritize human rights and inclusivity, which could be sidelined by a focus on military re-engagement.

Broader Implications and Challenges

The U.S.’s dual track—diplomatic engagement with exiles and pressure for Bagram—highlights the complexities of its Afghanistan policy. The State Department’s meetings foster a long-term vision of an inclusive Afghanistan, leveraging the diaspora’s influence and former officials’ expertise. Yet, Trump’s Bagram rhetoric, rooted in immediate strategic and symbolic gains, could provoke Taliban backlash, complicating hostage negotiations and humanitarian efforts. The Taliban’s defiance, backed by regional players, suggests that Bagram’s return is unlikely without significant concessions, which the U.S. has not publicly outlined.

Moreover, the diaspora and former officials may view a Bagram-centric policy as a betrayal of their advocacy for human rights and resettlement, potentially fracturing trust in U.S. intentions. The administration must also navigate domestic pressures, with critics arguing that focusing on Bagram distracts from urgent issues like Afghan refugee backlogs and ISIS-K’s growing threat.

Conclusion

The U.S. State Department’s regular engagement with former Afghan officials and the diaspora reflects a strategic, low-profile effort to maintain influence in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. These interactions provide critical intelligence, support vulnerable Afghans, and counterbalance the Taliban’s regional alignments, all while aligning with UN and humanitarian goals.

However, President Trump’s push for Bagram Airbase introduces a volatile element, risking conflict with the Taliban and complicating diplomatic efforts. U.S. faces a pivotal moment: balancing its humanitarian commitments with strategic ambitions in a region where its leverage is limited but its stakes remain high. The path forward will test America’s ability to blend diplomacy with pragmatism in a fractured, post-war Afghanistan.

Iran’s UNGA Applause for Pakistan-Saudi Defense Pact Signals a New Era of Muslim Unity

By
Asif Shahid
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Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian

On September 24, 2025, the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York became the stage for a surprising diplomatic moment: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian openly endorsed the newly minted mutual defense pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Hailing the agreement as a “good start” and a foundation for “a comprehensive regional security system with the cooperation of Muslim states of West Asia,” Pezeshkian’s remarks mark a pivotal shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East. This unexpected alignment among Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan—three nations historically divided by sectarian and strategic rivalries—could reshape the region’s security architecture, counter external threats, and challenge the dominance of Western powers in West Asia.

The Pakistan-Saudi Defense Pact: A Strategic Game-Changer

Signed on September 17, 2025, in Riyadh, the defense agreement between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif establishes a NATO-style mutual defense framework. The pact stipulates that an armed attack on either nation will be treated as an attack on both, committing them to joint defense efforts. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif’s statement that Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal would be “made available” to Saudi Arabia in times of need has sent ripples across global capitals, effectively extending Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella to the Gulf kingdom.

The agreement goes beyond mutual defense, encompassing a “comprehensive spectrum” of cooperation, including joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, counterterrorism operations, and defense technology transfers. It also leaves the door open for other Muslim-majority nations—potentially Turkey, Indonesia, or even Qatar—to join, framing the pact as a defensive alliance to deter aggression, particularly from Israel, which has intensified strikes across the region since October 2023.

The pact’s roots lie in deepening Saudi-Pakistani ties, built on decades of economic and military collaboration. Saudi Arabia’s substantial investments in Pakistan, including a $25 billion pledge in 2018 for energy and infrastructure, have bolstered Islamabad’s economy amid domestic challenges. For Riyadh, Pakistan’s battle-tested military and nuclear capabilities offer a hedge against vulnerabilities exposed by attacks like the 2019 Abqaiq oil facility strike, widely attributed to Iran or its proxies.

Iran’s Endorsement: A Diplomatic Breakthrough

Pezeshkian’s UNGA address was a carefully crafted blend of defiance and diplomacy. While condemning Israel’s recent attacks on Qatar, Syria, Yemen, and Iran itself—including a September 2025 strike on Doha—he framed the Pakistan-Saudi pact as a unifying step for Muslim states. This stance reflects Iran’s evolving foreign policy under Pezeshkian, who has prioritized regional de-escalation since taking office. His August 2025 visit to Pakistan, where agreements on border security and trade were signed, laid the groundwork for this alignment. A subsequent phone call on September 18 between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan further solidified this thaw, with both sides discussing the pact alongside bilateral ties.

Iran’s endorsement is significant for several reasons. First, it signals a détente in the decades-long Saudi-Iran rivalry, which has fueled proxy wars in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. The 2023 China-brokered agreement to restore diplomatic ties between Tehran and Riyadh has gained momentum, with Pezeshkian’s remarks suggesting Iran sees value in a collective Muslim security framework over sectarian division.

Second, it positions Iran as a stakeholder in a regional alliance that could counter Israeli aggression, particularly after Iran’s own military actions, such as the June 2025 strike on the U.S. Al Udeid base in Qatar, highlighted the limits of U.S. protection in the Gulf.

Strategic Implications: A Shifting Regional Order

The Pakistan-Saudi defense pact, coupled with Iran’s approval, carries profound implications for West Asia and beyond. Below are the key dimensions of its impact:

1. Countering Israeli Aggression

The pact emerges against the backdrop of Israel’s escalating military operations, including strikes on Qatar in September 2025 and ongoing campaigns in Yemen, Syria, and Gaza since October 2023. By uniting Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities with Saudi Arabia’s financial clout, the agreement creates a formidable deterrent. Iran’s support amplifies this, suggesting a potential “united front” among Muslim states to counter Israel’s regional dominance, especially as U.S. backing for Israel strains Washington’s Gulf alliances.

2. Nuclear Dynamics and Global Concerns

Saudi Arabia’s access to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, even indirectly, escalates the stakes in the Gulf’s nuclear race. Riyadh has repeatedly stated it would pursue nuclear weapons if Iran weaponizes its program, a fear heightened by Tehran’s advancements toward 90% uranium enrichment. The pact could stabilize this dynamic by deterring Iran through Saudi-Pakistani alignment, but it also risks fueling an arms race if miscalculations occur. Globally, it complicates U.S.-India relations, as New Delhi views Pakistan’s nuclear commitments with suspicion, and underscores China’s growing influence, given its role in Pakistan’s nuclear program.

3. Reducing U.S. Influence

The pact reflects a broader erosion of U.S. dominance in the Gulf. The failure of U.S. defenses to protect Saudi Arabia from the 2019 Abqaiq attack and Washington’s restrained response to Iran’s 2025 Al Udeid strike have pushed Riyadh to seek alternative security partners. Pakistan’s role as a reliable ally, combined with Iran’s acquiescence, signals a multipolar shift, with Gulf states diversifying beyond Western guarantees. This could delay U.S.-backed initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), as Saudi Arabia pivots toward regional alliances.

4. Economic and Geopolitical Ripple Effects

For Pakistan, the pact strengthens economic ties with Saudi Arabia, a critical investor amid Islamabad’s fiscal challenges. It also elevates Pakistan’s status as a security provider in the Muslim world, though it risks entanglement in Gulf conflicts like Yemen. For Saudi Arabia, the agreement addresses post-2019 vulnerabilities and diversifies its defense strategy. However, it unsettles India, which fears the pact could embolden Pakistan in bilateral disputes, potentially stalling regional projects like IMEC.

5. Risks of Escalation

While the pact aims to deter aggression, it carries risks. Pakistan’s involvement in Gulf conflicts could strain its resources and escalate tensions with India, particularly if New Delhi perceives the nuclear commitment as a threat. Similarly, Iran’s endorsement does not guarantee full alignment, as lingering distrust with Saudi Arabia could resurface in proxy theaters like Yemen. The inclusion of other states in the pact, while inclusive, could also complicate decision-making and heighten regional rivalries.

A Path Toward Muslim Unity?

Pezeshkian’s UNGA remarks frame the pact as a stepping stone to a broader West Asian security system, a vision that aligns with Iran’s push for regional self-reliance. By endorsing a Saudi-Pakistani initiative, Iran signals openness to multilateral cooperation, potentially including nations like Turkey or Qatar. This could stabilize oil markets, secure trade routes, and reduce proxy conflicts, but it requires careful diplomacy to avoid arms races or miscalculations. The pact also reflects a broader trend of Muslim-majority states seeking autonomy amid global power shifts. As U.S. influence wanes and China’s role grows, initiatives like this could redefine West Asia’s security landscape, prioritizing collective defense over external dependence. However, success hinges on managing internal rivalries and external pressures, particularly from Israel and its Western backers.

Conclusion: A Fragile but Promising Step

Iran’s applause for the Pakistan-Saudi defense pact at the UNGA marks a rare moment of convergence in a region long defined by division. By endorsing this alliance, Tehran positions itself as a partner in a nascent Muslim security framework, challenging the status quo of Western dominance and Israeli aggression. Yet, the pact’s success depends on navigating nuclear risks, regional rivalries, and global power dynamics.

For now, Pezeshkian’s words signal hope for unity, but the path to a stable West Asia remains fraught with challenges. As the region watches, the world waits to see if this alliance can deliver peace or ignite new tensions.

Pakistan’s Post-Conflict Power Play: Forging Global Alliances and Bolstering Defence Clout

By
Mian Anjum Nadeem
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COAS Aim Munir met with Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine.

In the wake of the May 2025 conflict, Pakistan has emerged as a focal point of global military diplomacy, hosting a flurry of high-profile delegations and securing strategic defence engagements that signal its growing influence. The four-day clash, triggered by Pakistan’s Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos in response to regional tensions, showcased its military resilience and diplomatic acumen. Since the U.S.-brokered ceasefire on May 10, 2025, Islamabad has capitalized on its strategic positioning, leveraging the conflict to strengthen alliances, modernize its arsenal, and project power across the Islamic world and beyond.

This article delves into the key defence-related engagements, high-profile visits to Islamabad, and the broader implications for Pakistan’s rising defence clout.

A Surge in Military Diplomacy

Since May 2025, Pakistan has hosted over a dozen military delegations, with Islamabad becoming a hub for strategic dialogues on counter-terrorism, air defence upgrades, and regional stability. These engagements reflect Pakistan’s proactive efforts to address vulnerabilities exposed during the conflict, particularly in air defence and missile systems, while forging new partnerships to counterbalance regional dynamics.

Key Engagements and Visits

1. Turkey’s Solidarity Mission (Late May 2025)

A high-level Turkish delegation, including Foreign and Defence Ministers, visited Islamabad to meet Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu. The talks focused on joint aviation and drone projects, as well as energy cooperation in oil and gas exploration. Turkey, a long-standing ally, pledged support for Pakistan’s air defence capabilities, reinforcing Ankara’s role as a key partner in defence technology and regional security.

2. Chinese Strategic Reinforcement (July and August 2025)

In July, Lieutenant General Wang Gang, Chief of the PLA Air Force, visited Pakistan to evaluate the performance of Chinese-supplied systems like the HQ-9 air defence system and PL-15 missiles. The visit spurred accelerated technology transfers. In August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi led the Pakistan-China Strategic Dialogue in Islamabad, meeting Field Marshal Asim Munir and PM Sharif. The discussions solidified the “all-weather” partnership, focusing on CPEC security, regional stability, and preparations for Sharif’s visit to the SCO Summit in China. Additionally, President Asif Ali Zardari’s September visit to China’s AVIC military hub deepened ties, with a focus on J-10 upgrades and drone technology.

3. Sudanese Mega-Deal (August 17-20, 2025)

A Sudanese Armed Forces delegation, led by Lieutenant General Al-Tahir Mohammed, signed a landmark $1.5 billion defence agreement during a visit to Islamabad. The deal included 10 K-8 trainer aircraft, over 20 Shahpar-II UAVs, 150+ YIHA-III/MR-10K/Ababeel-5 drones, MiG-21 engines, 150 Mohafiz vehicles, and HQ-9/HQ-6 air defence systems. Financed by a third party, likely a Gulf ally, this pact underscores Pakistan’s growing role as a defence exporter, particularly in the African market.

4. Bangladesh’s Military Reset (August 22-24, 2025)

A Bangladesh Army delegation, led by Lieutenant General Faizur Rahman, visited Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) and military headquarters. The talks focused on joint training, counter-insurgency cooperation, and reviving defence ties strained since 1971. This visit coincided with Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar’s trip to Dhaka, signaling a broader reset in bilateral relations under Bangladesh’s interim government.

5. U.S. and Central Asian Engagement (August 2025)

The U.S.-Pakistan defence relationship saw a revival with the Chiefs of Defence Staff (CHOD) Conference hosted in Islamabad, attended by representatives from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. The multilateral talks emphasized counter-terrorism and regional stability. This followed Air Chief Marshal Sidhu’s July visit to Washington, where he sought AIM-120D missiles for Pakistan’s F-16 fleet to diversify from Chinese systems. A U.S. delegation reciprocated in August for joint air exercises, marking a thaw in ties.

6. Gulf Security Pacts (September 2025)

Bahrain’s National Guard Commander met Pakistan’s Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) and Air Chief in Islamabad, discussing a Gulf-Pakistan security pact, joint naval drills, and arms co-production. Saudi Arabia is also expected to deploy units for “mutual defence” exercises, building on Pakistan’s role as a security guarantor in the Gulf. Additionally, Egypt’s Military Production Minister, through ambassadorial channels, explored co-manufacturing small arms and munitions, building on 2024 agreements.

A landmark development in Gulf ties came on September 17, 2025, when Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, during a state visit to Riyadh, signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at Al Yamamah Palace.
 This pact commits both nations to treat any aggression against one as an act against both, encompassing comprehensive military cooperation without explicit mention of nuclear elements, though a senior Saudi official described it as covering “all military means.” The agreement, attended by Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman and Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir, deepens decades-long security ties and follows heightened regional tensions, including Israel’s recent strikes on Qatar. It marks the first such military pact between a Gulf Arab state and a nuclear power, enhancing joint deterrence and opening avenues for expanded Pakistani military involvement in Saudi Arabia, including potential training and advisory roles.

7. Regional Stabilization Efforts

Pakistan hosted trilateral talks with China and Afghanistan in August, focusing on counter-terrorism to address threats from groups like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). These discussions, coupled with Field Marshal Munir’s July visit to China for the third Hangor-class submarine handover, highlight Pakistan’s efforts to secure its western borders while deepening defence ties.

Strategic Importance of Pakistan’s Engagements

These high-profile visits and agreements are not mere diplomatic formalities; they are pivotal to Pakistan’s post-conflict strategy, addressing operational, geopolitical, and domestic imperatives:

– Technological Modernization: The Sudanese deal and Chinese engagements address critical gaps in Pakistan’s air defence and ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) capabilities. The Shahpar-II and YIHA-III drones enhance counter-insurgency operations, while U.S. missile pursuits reduce reliance on Chinese systems. These upgrades aim to bolster deterrence and complicate adversaries’ escalation strategies.

– Geopolitical Maneuvering: Pakistan has leveraged the conflict to internationalize its strategic priorities, particularly through forums like the SCO and UN Security Council (chaired by Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar in July). Engagements with Turkey, Sudan, and Bangladesh expand Pakistan’s Islamic and regional alliances, countering rival blocs. Gulf partnerships, including with Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, provide economic lifelines amid IMF pressures, with defence cooperation doubling as a financial stabilizer.

– Domestic Consolidation: The conflict boosted the military’s domestic standing, reflected in a 20%+ defence budget hike and Munir’s promotion to Field Marshal. High-profile visits reinforce this narrative of strength, deterring internal dissent and rallying public support through displays of global solidarity.

– Regional Influence: By hosting Central Asian and U.S. delegations, Pakistan positions itself as a linchpin in regional stability. The trilateral talks with Afghanistan and China underscore its role in counter-terrorism, while Gulf engagements cement its status as a security partner in the Middle East.

Pakistan’s Rising Defence Clout

The May 2025 conflict, despite its challenges, has paradoxically elevated Pakistan’s global defence profile. Islamabad’s narrative of resilience—downing advanced aircraft and forcing a ceasefire—has resonated domestically and internationally. Key indicators of Pakistan’s growing clout include:

– Defence Exports and Partnerships: The $1.5 billion Sudanese deal positions Pakistan as a competitive player in the global arms market, particularly for drones and air defence systems. Co-production with Turkey (YIHA-III drones) and potential Gulf partnerships further enhance its industrial base.

– Diplomatic Leverage: Pakistan’s ability to secure U.S. mediation and host multilateral forums like the CHOD Conference signals a return to pre-2019 influence levels. The SCO Summit and UNSC engagements have amplified its voice on global platforms.

– Military Modernization: Investments in drones, loitering munitions, and information operations reflect a doctrinal shift toward asymmetric warfare. These capabilities, combined with diversified arms sourcing (U.S., China, Turkey), strengthen Pakistan’s deterrence posture.

– Islamic World Leadership: Engagements with Sudan, Bangladesh, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia reinforce Pakistan’s role as a defence hub for Muslim-majority nations. The revival of ties with Bangladesh, in particular, marks a historic shift, opening new avenues for cooperation.

Challenges and Future Prospects

Despite these gains, Pakistan faces hurdles. Economic fragility, with a $7 billion IMF bailout and looming debt repayments, limits the sustainability of its defence ambitions. Moreover, internal security threats from TTP and BLA require sustained focus, diverting resources from external projection. Looking ahead, Pakistan’s defence clout will hinge on its ability to balance these challenges with its diplomatic momentum. The upcoming Saudi exercises and potential expansion of Sudanese-style deals could solidify its role as a regional arms supplier. Continued Chinese investment, coupled with selective Western engagement, will drive modernization, while Gulf economic support could alleviate fiscal pressures. By sustaining this multifaceted strategy, Pakistan is poised to cement its status as a pivotal player in global defence dynamics.

In conclusion, Pakistan’s post-May 2025 engagements reflect a calculated bid to transform battlefield challenges into strategic opportunities. From Turkish drones to Sudanese arms deals and U.S. missile pursuits, Islamabad is weaving a web of alliances that amplifies its defence clout. As it navigates economic and security headwinds, Pakistan’s ability to sustain this momentum will shape its trajectory as a regional powerhouse, proving that even in conflict, opportunity can forge a new path forward.

Pakistan’s Pivot to Power: Embracing China’s Laser Weapons in a Shifting South Asian Arms Race

By
Mian Anjum Nadeem
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In a bold move signaling its intent to keep pace with the evolving landscape of modern warfare, Pakistan has expressed keen interest in acquiring advanced Chinese laser weapons. This development, announced on September 23, 2025, during the high-profile Xiangshan Forum in Beijing, underscores Pakistan’s ambition to bolster its defense capabilities with cutting-edge directed-energy systems. Vice-Admiral (Retd.) Ahmed Saeed, president of Pakistan’s National Institute of Maritime Affairs, articulated this vision, stating, “In the coming days, high-energy directed weapons will be more prominent… Pakistan would love to see some integration [with China] into this area.”

As the global arms race shifts toward non-kinetic technologies, this partnership could redefine South Asian security dynamics, strengthen the Sino-Pakistani alliance, and reshape regional deterrence strategies.

The Rise of Directed-Energy Weapons

Directed-energy weapons (DEWs), such as high-energy lasers and microwave systems, represent a paradigm shift in military technology. Unlike traditional munitions, DEWs deliver precise, high-speed energy beams to neutralize threats like drones, missiles, or sensors at a fraction of the cost of conventional interceptors. Their “ammunition” is limited only by power supply, offering near-infinite shots and unparalleled cost-efficiency. China, a global leader in DEW development, has fielded systems that are both operationally mature and export-ready, positioning it as a key supplier for allies like Pakistan.

The systems drawing Pakistan’s attention include:

1. LY-1 Shipborne Laser:

Unveiled during China’s September 2025 military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan in World War II, the LY-1 is a naval directed-energy weapon designed for anti-drone and anti-sensor roles. Capable of blinding optics or disabling electronics, it offers a stealthy, non-kinetic defense option for naval vessels. While specifics on its deployment aboard Chinese ships remain classified, its export potential has sparked interest in maritime-focused nations like Pakistan.

2. Silent Hunter:

A vehicle-mounted laser system, the Silent Hunter is optimized for countering unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and lightly armored targets. Observed on China’s Type 071 amphibious ships, it demonstrates versatility across naval and land-based platforms. Its compact design and high precision make it an attractive option for Pakistan’s diverse operational needs. These systems align with Pakistan’s ongoing defense modernization, which has long relied on Chinese platforms like the JF-17 Thunder fighter, HQ-9 surface-to-air missiles, and Z-10ME attack helicopters. The potential integration of laser weapons marks a new chapter in this partnership, driven by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and shared strategic interests.

Why Laser Weapons Matter for Pakistan

Pakistan’s interest in Chinese laser weapons is not merely a technological upgrade but a strategic necessity, driven by regional threats and global trends in warfare. Here’s why this move is significant:

1. Countering Asymmetric Threats

South Asia’s security environment is increasingly defined by asymmetric threats, particularly drones and precision-guided munitions. Pakistan has faced repeated drone incursions along its border with India, with incidents reported as recently as May 2025. Traditional air defense systems, while effective, are costly and logistically demanding. Laser weapons like the LY-1 and Silent Hunter offer a low-cost, high-efficiency solution, capable of neutralizing swarms of drones or blinding surveillance systems without depleting missile stocks. For Pakistan’s navy, operating in critical maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz or the Arabian Sea, these systems could safeguard vital trade routes and energy supplies.

2. Balancing India’s Military Advancements

The India-Pakistan rivalry remains a cornerstone of South Asian geopolitics. India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) has been developing its own directed-energy weapons, though these lag behind China’s in power output and operational readiness. By acquiring Chinese lasers, Pakistan could gain an edge in non-kinetic warfare, enhancing its deterrence posture. For instance, lasers could disrupt India’s ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) assets or counter emerging hypersonic threats, complementing Pakistan’s tactical nuclear capabilities and conventional forces.

3. Cost-Effective Defense

The economic advantage of laser weapons cannot be overstated. A single missile intercept can cost millions, whereas a laser shot costs mere dollars in energy. For Pakistan, operating under budgetary constraints and reduced U.S. military aid since 2018, this cost-efficiency is a game-changer. It allows sustained defense operations without the logistical burden of munitions resupply, particularly in prolonged low-intensity conflicts.

4. Geopolitical Alignment with China

Pakistan’s pursuit of Chinese laser weapons deepens the “all-weather” Sino-Pakistani alliance, a counterweight to the U.S.-India strategic partnership. This collaboration could accelerate technology transfers, mirroring past nuclear and missile cooperation, and position China as Pakistan’s primary arms supplier. For China, exporting DEWs to Pakistan serves dual purposes: it strengthens a key ally and provides a testing ground for its systems in real-world scenarios, enhancing their global marketability.

Technical and Strategic Considerations

While the potential of laser weapons is immense, their integration into Pakistan’s arsenal comes with challenges and opportunities. Below is a detailed breakdown:

Aspect
Advantages
Challenges
Cost & Logistics
Near-infinite shots; no need for physical munitions
High energy demands require robust power infrastructure
Range & Precision
Effective up to 3-5 km for anti-drone roles; silent and invisible beams
Atmospheric conditions (e.g., dust, fog) can reduce effectiveness
Integration
Compatible with existing platforms like ships and vehicles; complements HQ-16 SAMs
Requires Chinese training and technical support, increasing dependency
Strategic Impact
Enhances deterrence; counters asymmetric threats
Risks escalating regional arms race; potential export controls

 

Pakistan’s military would need to invest in power generation and cooling systems to support DEWs, particularly in harsh environments like the Thar Desert or coastal regions. Additionally, reliance on Chinese expertise could deepen strategic dependence, a concern echoed by some analysts on X, who argue Pakistan should prioritize domestic R&D.

Regional and Global Implications

Pakistan’s potential acquisition of Chinese laser weapons has far-reaching implications:

1. South Asian Arms Race:

As India accelerates its own DEW programs, Pakistan’s move could trigger a tit-for-tat escalation, raising tensions in an already volatile region. The May 2025 air clashes, where Chinese-supplied PL-15 missiles were used, highlight the stakes of technological one-upmanship.

2. Indo-Pacific Security:

The Sino-Pakistani partnership, bolstered by laser weapons, could alter power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, challenging U.S. and Indian influence. It may also prompt other regional players, like Iran or Turkey, to seek similar systems from China.

3. China’s Arms Export Ambitions:

China’s willingness to export DEWs positions it as a leader in the global arms market, challenging Western dominance. Pakistan’s adoption could pave the way for broader exports to Middle Eastern or African nations.

Public and Expert Reactions

The announcement has sparked lively debate on platforms like X, where users have both praised and critiqued Pakistan’s strategy. Posts from accounts like @RedMarkar highlighted Saeed’s remarks, framing them as part of a global shift toward directed-energy systems. Others, like @DefStratPK, criticized Pakistan’s reliance on foreign imports, arguing that funds should be redirected to indigenous programs like the NESCOM missile projects. Defense blogs, note that while no formal deal has been signed, discussions are likely advancing under CPEC’s security cooperation framework.

The Road Ahead

As of September 23, 2025, Pakistan’s interest in Chinese laser weapons remains at the exploratory stage, with no confirmed contracts or delivery timelines. However, the strategic intent is clear: Pakistan seeks to modernize its arsenal, counter regional threats, and deepen ties with China. The integration of systems like the LY-1 or Silent Hunter would mark a significant leap, positioning Pakistan as an early adopter of next-generation warfare technologies in South Asia. To realize this ambition, Pakistan must navigate technical challenges, secure funding, and address geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the world watches closely as the Sino-Pakistani alliance takes another step toward reshaping the future of conflict in the region and beyond.

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