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Senator Graham Warns Allies of Sanctions for Supporting ICC in Netanyahu’s Arrest

November 24, 2024

US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has issued a warning to American allies, stating they could face sanctions if they assist the International Criminal Court (ICC) in apprehending Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“To any ally — Canada, Britain, Germany, France — if you attempt to aid the ICC, we will impose sanctions,” Graham declared during an appearance on Fox News. When pressed about the specifics of these sanctions, he reiterated his stance, asserting that the US should “crush” the economies of nations that back the ICC’s initiatives.

On Thursday, the ICC announced arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Galant, citing alleged war crimes in the Gaza Strip. The court also rejected Israel’s claims regarding its jurisdiction over such matters. Israel has persistently contested the ICC’s authority to address cases concerning Palestine. US President Joe Biden described the ICC’s ruling as “outrageous.”

Since October 1, Israel has been engaged in a ground offensive against Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon, alongside ongoing airstrikes in the region, which have resulted in over 2,500 fatalities, including key figures from the Shiite movement, and displaced more than a million individuals. Despite suffering losses, including among its command staff, Hezbollah continues to engage in ground combat and maintains its rocket attacks on Israeli territory.

On October 7, 2023, Israel experienced an unprecedented rocket assault originating from the Gaza Strip. Following this, Hamas militants breached the border, engaging in gunfire against both military personnel and civilians, and taking over 200 individuals hostage. Authorities reported that approximately 1,200 people lost their lives on the Israeli side.

In retaliation, the Israel Defense Forces initiated Operation Iron Swords, which involved strikes on civilian locations and declared a total blockade of the Gaza Strip, halting the flow of water, electricity, fuel, food, and medical supplies. The Gaza Health Ministry reported that since the onset of the conflict, more than 43,500 Palestinians have died, with over 102,000 sustaining injuries.

Russia says United States is leveraging Taiwan to instigate a crisis in Asia

Asif Shahid

November 24, 2024

A U.S.-made TOW-2A wire-guided anti-tank missile launched by Taiwanese soldiers from a M1167 TOW carrier vehicle at the Fangshan training grounds in Pingtung, Taiwan.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko stated in an interview with TASS news agency that the United States is leveraging Taiwan to instigate a significant crisis in Asia. He emphasized Moscow’s support for China‘s position on Taiwan.

Rudenko remarked that Washington is enhancing military and political ties with Taipei, contrary to the ‘one China’ principle it acknowledges, all under the pretext of preserving the ‘status quo’ while increasing arms deliveries.

He asserted that the apparent U.S. involvement in regional matters aims to provoke the People’s Republic of China and create a crisis in Asia that serves American interests.

The report did not specify any particular interactions that Rudenko was alluding to.

China considers Taiwan, which operates as a democracy, to be part of its territory, a claim that is firmly rejected by Taiwan’s government. The United States remains Taiwan’s primary international supporter and arms provider, despite not having formal diplomatic relations.

The U.S. State Department did not provide an immediate comment regarding Rudenko’s statements after business hours.

In September, President Joe Biden authorized $567 million in military assistance for Taiwan. In response, Russia affirmed its support for China on Asian matters, including criticism of the U.S. efforts to expand its influence and what it termed “deliberate attempts” to escalate tensions surrounding Taiwan.

In February 2022, China and Russia announced a “no limits” partnership during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing, just prior to his initiation of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has resulted in the most lethal land conflict in Europe since World War II.

In May of this year, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping committed to a “new era” of collaboration between the two leading adversaries of the United States, portraying it as an aggressive Cold War power that is creating disorder globally.

Turkey’s Erdogan will discuss the Ukraine conflict with the NATO Secretary General

Asif Shahid

November 24, 2024

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is set to meet with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday in Ankara to address the recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as reported by a Turkish official on Sunday.

On Thursday, Russia launched a new hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile at Ukraine, a reaction to Kyiv’s deployment of U.S. and British missiles against Russian targets. This incident marks a significant escalation in the ongoing war, which began with Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

As a NATO member, Turkey has condemned the Russian invasion and expressed its support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, providing military assistance to Kyiv. However, Turkey, which shares borders with both Russia and Ukraine, has also voiced opposition to Western sanctions against Moscow, citing the importance of their defense, energy, and tourism relationships.

Erdogan criticized a recent U.S. decision permitting Ukraine to utilize long-range missiles for strikes within Russia, arguing that this would exacerbate the conflict, according to a statement from his office.

Moscow has claimed that the U.S. and its allies, by allowing Ukraine to launch Western missiles deep into Russian territory, are engaging in direct conflict with Russia. Additionally, on Tuesday, President Putin approved changes to policy that would lower the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks.

During their discussions on Monday, Erdogan and Rutte will also address the removal of barriers to defense procurement among NATO allies and the alliance’s collective efforts in combating terrorism, as indicated by the Turkish official.

Unidentified drones observed over U.S. military installations in the United Kingdom.

Asif Shahid

November 24, 2024

Multiple unidentified drones were spotted near three significant UK airbases, including RAF Lakenheath, which previously housed American nuclear weapons during the Cold War, as confirmed by the US Air Force (USAF).

A representative from the USAF’s European Command reported that small unmanned aerial vehicles were detected between November 20 and 22 over RAF Lakenheath and RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk, as well as RAF Feltwell in Norfolk.

The quantity of suspicious drones varied in size and configuration, and it remains uncertain whether they represented a genuine threat, according to military sources.

The Pentagon refrained from commenting on whether any air defense measures were activated against the drones, stating only that they were actively monitoring the situation to ensure that none of the incursions affected base residents or critical infrastructure.

“To safeguard operational security, we do not disclose specific force protection strategies but reserve the right to defend the installation. We continue to oversee our airspace and collaborate with host-nation authorities and mission partners to ensure the safety of base personnel, facilities, and assets,” the spokesperson stated.

The British Ministry of Defense also declined to provide details on the specific security measures implemented against the drones. A spokesperson indicated that the military is taking the threats seriously and upholds “robust measures” at essential defense locations.

RAF Lakenheath was one of three locations in the UK that accommodated US nuclear arms during the Cold War, maintaining a stockpile of 110 American warheads until a reduction in 2008.

Recent media reports indicate that the Pentagon is making preparations for the base to once again store nuclear weapons. The US military has requested $50 million for a new “surety dormitory” at RAF Lakenheath in last year’s budget proposal to Congress, as analyzed by a US think tank and reported by British media. In January, The Telegraph noted that the base is anticipated to house B61-12 bombs, which possess three times the explosive power of those used in Hiroshima, based on procurement contracts for the new facility.

China is committed to the CPEC project and will not withdraw support

Aslam Awan

November 24, 2024

The joint counter-terrorism exercises initiated by Pakistan and China last Wednesday are designed to enhance the professional capabilities of their military personnel and to fortify the military relations between the two nations.

Historically, Pakistan and China have collaborated extensively in areas such as defense production, technology, and training. China serves as a significant defense partner for Pakistan, supplying advanced weaponry, including fighter jets and submarines. These exercises are particularly relevant given the recent rise in attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan, attributed to separatist groups in Karachi and the Balochistan region. It appears that the focus of these joint military drills will be on promoting regional security through coordinated counter-terrorism strategies.

In the previous month, a suicide bombing occurred near the airport in Karachi, specifically aimed at Chinese engineers, resulting in the deaths of two individuals and injuries to several others. Earlier in March of the same year, another suicide attack in the northwest region claimed the lives of five Chinese engineers along with a Pakistani driver while they were en route to the Dasu Dam, the largest hydropower project in the country. The government of Islamabad asserts that these terrorist acts are intended to undermine its relationship with Beijing and threaten a multi-billion dollar infrastructure initiative in Pakistan.

In 2016, Pakistan established a security force comprising over 10,000 soldiers from the 34th Light Infantry Division to safeguard CPEC investments and Chinese personnel. In 2020, this force was bolstered by the addition of the 44th Light Infantry Division and a second task unit. However, incidents of violence along the CPEC route have persisted, leading Beijing to potentially view Islamabad’s security measures as inadequate, prompting a request for the deployment of Chinese security forces to ensure the safety of its citizens.

Despite the ongoing security challenges along the CPEC route and the resistance from ethnic movements in areas such as Balochistan, China remains committed to advancing the CPEC project as part of its regional ambitions. This commitment underscores Beijing’s determination to fulfill its strategic goals for regional connectivity as it emerges as a significant global power.

Launched in 2015, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) stands as the most significant and costly connectivity project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, initially estimated at $62 billion. This corridor spans approximately 3,000 kilometers, beginning in Xinjiang, a northwestern province of China, and concluding at Gwadar, a port city on the Arabian Sea in Balochistan. For China, the initiative holds strategic importance, aiming to address the “Malacca Dilemma” and mitigate potential threats to its access to the Indian Ocean via the South China Sea amid geopolitical tensions. This route is crucial for China to bolster economic relations and enhance defense collaboration with the Persian Gulf region.

As the flagship endeavor of the Belt and Road Initiative, CPEC also marks a significant milestone in China’s international standing, showcasing its commitment to global infrastructure development. Beijing has strategically positioned CPEC as a representation of its rise as a key global player, highlighting its pursuit of globalization and sustainable economic growth in partnership with the Global South over the last two decades. In parallel, Pakistan views CPEC as a transformative opportunity that could rejuvenate its economy, which has faced challenges such as financial instability, political turmoil, and social decline stemming from its Cold War involvement and subsequent conflicts. Consequently, the host nation aims to leverage this project as a vital geostrategic asset to enhance national security and facilitate comprehensive reconstruction.

On a global scale, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is poised to significantly influence China’s strategic positioning in relation to the United States. Connectivity initiatives are becoming increasingly vital to Beijing’s approach to mitigate the risks posed by Washington’s pro-American allies. These initiatives not only enhance essential infrastructure and trade routes but also foster economic reliance among participating nations on China. This economic interdependence serves as a foundation for China to expand its strategic influence as a prominent regional player, gradually positioning itself as a viable alternative to the United States’ global dominance. By strengthening both physical and financial connections, China is effectively complicating efforts by the United States and its allies to contain or isolate it, thereby establishing a buffer zone of states reliant on Chinese investment between itself and the United States through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

To disrupt the strategic buffer zone, Western nations have been introducing various challenges to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) since 2018. These challenges manifest as security threats, financial instability, and political hurdles within Pakistan. Notably, the escalating ethnic tensions in Balochistan have been exacerbated by local grievances regarding the perceived exploitation of natural resources, including the Reko Diq gold mines, as well as environmental concerns linked to Chinese-led initiatives. Additionally, the activities of militant groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army, ISIS-Khorasan, TTP, and Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan contribute to this complex situation. In this context, the United States is actively adjusting its foreign policy to counter China’s growing influence in regional connectivity efforts. Consequently, President Trump may seek to leverage the internal political strife and economic challenges in Pakistan to monitor developments related to CPEC closely, particularly in light of the country’s increasing external debt and ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for further bailout assistance, which could further jeopardize the CPEC initiative.

Bureaucratic inefficiencies and regional rivalries have exacerbated internal political tensions and obstructed socio-economic progress in the troubled region of Balochistan. This situation adds further complexity, particularly as the diverse implications and potential developments of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) significantly affect US foreign policy. As China strengthens its economic and security partnerships with Pakistan through this initiative, it is increasing its influence in a region where US authority over matters like regional stability, counterterrorism, and maritime security is being contested.

Should China achieve economic and strategic preeminence in South Asia, it could alter the power dynamics in favor of the East, thereby diminishing Washington’s sway over global trade routes and undermining US alliances. In light of this challenge, President Trump’s strategy may involve developing alternative connections under the Global Infrastructure and Investment Partnership, closely tracking CPEC’s advancements, and addressing socio-economic and human rights concerns in Balochistan.

Global powers are primarily stoking anti-China sentiment in Balochistan through violent incidents linked to groups such as the BLA, TTP, TJP, and ISIS-K. In response, Beijing is working to normalize relations with Afghanistan by engaging the Afghan Taliban and enhancing military cooperation with Pakistan. The underlying reason for these efforts is the Afghan Taliban’s focus on Afghanistan, coupled with their historical ties to militant organizations like the TTP and TJP, which, while operating independently, occasionally collaborate due to shared ideological beliefs.

Additionally, Beijing’s growing involvement with Kabul is driven by the urgent need to rebuild a region left in disarray by two decades of U.S. intervention. China aims to develop water resources in Afghanistan and seeks to establish access to Central Asian countries and Eastern Europe through infrastructure investments. Consequently, global powers are likely to continue fostering instability in Balochistan, exacerbating socio-economic grievances and feelings of marginalization among the ethnic Baloch population regarding transformative initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Ukraine is seeing more assaults with North Korean missiles using Western components

Asif Shahid

November 23, 2024

Ukrainian investigators found evidence that crucial components used in the North Korean missiles are produced by at least nine Western manufacturers.

Ukraine is experiencing a significant increase in Russian ballistic missile strikes, with approximately one-third of these attacks utilizing North Korean missiles that rely on Western circuitry for operation, which has been acquired despite existing sanctions, as reported by Ukrainian military officials.

This year, Russia has launched around 60 KN-23 missiles from North Korea against Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian defense representative. This figure represents nearly one-third of the total 194 ballistic missiles fired in 2024, based on a analysis of attacks acknowledged by Ukraine’s air force.

There was a notable rise in missile attacks during August and September, coinciding with Ukraine’s initial public disclosure regarding the use of the KN-23 missiles.

Yuriy Ignat, the acting head of communications for the Ukrainian Air Force, stated, “Since spring, we have observed an increased reliance on ballistic missiles and attack drones by Russia to target Ukraine, with a reduced use of cruise missiles.”

These less advanced missiles are indicative of North Korea’s increasing support for Moscow, which also includes the deployment of approximately 11,000 North Korean troops to Russia’s Kursk region.

As the role of North Korean missiles becomes more apparent, Ukrainian officials have provided the media with rare access to fragments from the missile wreckage, revealing the significant presence of US- and European-made or designed circuitry within their guidance systems.

Key elements utilized in North Korean missiles are sourced from nine Western manufacturers, including firms located in the United States, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, as reported by Ukraine’s Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), a civil society organization. Some components of the KN-23/24 missiles examined were manufactured as recently as 2023, indicating a rapid supply chain to North Korea.

U.S. media was granted access to a warehouse where Ukrainian government investigators meticulously analyze debris, seeking minute details that may reveal insights into the production of these lethal weapons.

The warehouse contained a multitude of damaged drones and charred missile fragments. In separate facilities, hundreds of microchips were systematically organized into folders labeled with the names of various weapons employed by Russia, such as “Shahed,” “Iskander,” and “KN-23.”

The atmosphere is somber, as investigators are acutely aware that these components were recovered from sites where lives were tragically lost. According to the Ukrainian prosecutor general, strikes involving North Korean missiles have resulted in at least 28 fatalities and 213 injuries this year.

Andriy Kulchytskyi, the head of the Military Research Laboratory at Kyiv’s Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise, stated, “All the systems that guide the missile and enable its flight consist entirely of foreign components. The electronics are sourced from abroad, with no domestic Korean elements present.”

He further noted, “The only Korean aspect is the metal, which is prone to rapid rusting and corrosion.”

A Ukrainian Defense Intelligence official, who requested anonymity, mentioned that their investigations face challenges due to the damage sustained by missile fragments. However, it remains feasible to ascertain that “the overwhelming majority of components are of Western origin, with approximately 70% being American, sourced from well-known companies. Additionally, components from Germany and Switzerland are also utilized.”

A report published earlier this year by the UK-based investigative organization Conflict Armament Research (CAR) revealed that 75% of the components in one of the initial North Korean missiles used in attacks on Ukraine originated from US companies.

Experts in weapons tracing indicate that there is no definitive information on how these components reach North Korea, but they suggest that China is likely the primary channel.

Damien Spleeters, deputy director of operations at CAR, stated, “We have successfully traced some of these components, and the last known custodians are Chinese companies.” This indicates that Chinese firms acquired the components from manufacturers through a network of intermediaries.

“The diversion typically does not occur at the manufacturing site of the components,” he explained.

CAR adheres to a policy of not publicly identifying specific manufacturers, as there is no evidence that these companies intentionally supplied parts to North Korea.

Victoria Vyshnivska, a senior researcher at NAKO, commented, “Some of these components may actually be counterfeit and produced in China. However, we cannot be entirely certain,” she added, noting that the companies involved often do not respond to inquiries.

A manufacturer successfully provided NAKO with proof that a low-cost electronic component discovered in a North Korean missile was counterfeit.

In contrast, Vyshnivska noted that some manufacturers are opting against enhancing their export controls, as the implementation of more rigorous record-keeping and company audits would lead to increased expenses. “This is often a form of ignorance, potentially influenced by financial considerations,” she stated in an interview.

CAR and others believe that the primary concern lies with middleman distribution companies rather than the manufacturers themselves.

According to CAR, over 250 companies have had their components identified in North Korean missiles. However, the bulk of these electronics are funneled through five major distributors located in the United States and Canada. CAR is advocating for policymakers to concentrate more on regulating these distribution firms.

The US Commerce Department has intensified its efforts to target entities and shell companies involved in shipping sanctioned goods to Russia and Belarus.

Ukrainian officials contend that the inadequate enforcement of the sanctions regime by Western countries is a significant problem.

Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the Ukrainian president’s commissioner for sanctions policy, expressed optimism that the incoming Trump administration would pursue stricter control over illicit trade.

No manufacturers have yet been held accountable for these supplies, he stated “We believe that if any of these manufacturers were to be held liable for the amount of microelectronics discovered in Russian missiles targeting Ukraine, they would significantly increase their efforts in this area.”

This perspective aligns with the US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, which criticized US manufacturers earlier this year for failing to adequately vet potential buyers, despite having sufficient resources, funding, and expertise.

“Our investigation indicates a clear lack of interest in assessing and enhancing corporate compliance practices, particularly in monitoring distributors and middlemen,” remarked Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) in September.

Additionally, components continue to be redirected to Iran and Russia, as noted by a Ukrainian intelligence official.

“Russia incorporates Western components across a range of lethal weapons and reconnaissance drones,” the Defense Intelligence official informed the media, highlighting that the downing of one of Russia’s heavy drones, the “Okhotnik,” revealed it was largely constructed from American parts. “We must also take the necessary steps to close these supply routes,” he emphasized.

France has approved Ukraine’s use of long-range missile strikes

Asif Shahid

November 23, 2024

SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile is displayed at the Paris Air Show in Paris, France.

France has indicated that Ukraine could potentially utilize French missiles to target areas within internationally recognized Russian territory, although he did not verify if such attacks have already occurred.

In an interview set to air on the BBC this Sunday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot emphasized that Paris does not impose or articulate specific limitations on its support for Ukraine, suggesting that long-range strikes on Russian territory could be conducted by Ukraine as part of its self-defense strategy.

France has supplied Ukraine with an undisclosed quantity of SCALP-EG cruise missiles, which have already been deployed by Kiev to strike targets in Crimea and the four regions that were annexed by Russia in 2022. The SCALP-EG, referred to as Storm Shadow in the UK, is a British-French air-launched cruise missile with a maximum range of 550 kilometers (approximately 390 miles).

Barrot’s remarks followed a confirmation from the Ukrainian military regarding the use of Storm Shadow missiles for the first time in an assault on Russia’s Kursk Region, where Ukrainian forces initiated a cross-border operation in August. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, two of the British missiles were intercepted by Russian air defenses.

Last weekend, it was reported that US President Joe Biden granted Ukraine permission to utilize American-made ATACMS ballistic missiles for long-range operations targeting the Kursk Region. Following Biden’s decision, which has yet to receive official confirmation from the White House, Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted five ATACMS missiles over the Bryansk Region, according to the Defense Ministry in Moscow. Additionally, one of the American-made missiles was damaged and subsequently fell on a military installation, the ministry noted.

In May, French President Emmanuel Macron indicated that he would contemplate authorizing the deployment of SCALP-EG missiles against targets deep within Russia. Earlier this week, Barrot informed reporters that Macron remains receptive to this possibility. His remarks to the BBC represent the first instance of a French official acknowledging that Ukraine might employ these missiles for long-range strikes against Russia.

Barrot did not provide confirmation regarding whether such attacks have already occurred.

Russia reacted to the recent ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes by launching a new ballistic missile at a military industrial facility in Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine. The hypersonic missile, known as the Oreshnik and capable of carrying nuclear warheads, struck the facility with multiple warheads at incredible speed. President Vladimir Putin announced that this missile will be mass-produced and added to Russia’s military inventory in the upcoming months.

In his remarks, Putin accused the United States and NATO of intentionally escalating tensions and asserted that Russia would fulfill all its military goals, irrespective of the weaponry employed by Ukraine. He warned that further use of Western arms would lead to retaliatory actions against targets selected by Moscow, emphasizing in a televised address, “make no mistake: there will always be a response.”

Ukraine has given up over 40% of the territory it captured in the Kursk region

Asif Shahid

November 23, 2024

Ukraine has reportedly lost more than 40% of the territory it quickly captured in Russia‘s Kursk region during a surprise incursion in August, as Russian forces have launched multiple counter-offensives, according to a senior military official from Ukraine.

The official, who is part of Ukraine‘s General Staff, indicated that Russia has mobilized approximately 59,000 troops to the Kursk area since Ukrainian forces executed their rapid advance, which took Moscow by surprise two and a half years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Initially, we controlled around 1,376 square kilometers (531 square miles), but that area has now diminished. The enemy is intensifying its counterattacks,” the official stated.

“Currently, we maintain control over roughly 800 square kilometers (309 square miles). We will defend this territory for as long as it is strategically viable.”

The Kursk offensive marked the first ground invasion of Russia by a foreign entity since World War II, catching Moscow off guard.

Kyiv’s offensive in Kursk was intended to halt Russian advances in eastern and northeastern Ukraine, compel Russia to withdraw its forces that are progressively moving eastward, and enhance Ukraine’s position in potential future peace talks.

However, Russian troops continue to make steady progress in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine.

A source from the Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that approximately 11,000 North Korean soldiers have arrived in the Kursk area to support Russia, although most of these troops are still completing their training.

The Russian Defence Ministry has not yet responded to a request from Reuters regarding Kyiv’s latest evaluation of the situation in the Kursk region. Reuters has been unable to independently verify the numbers or claims provided.

Moscow has not confirmed or denied the presence of North Korean troops in Kursk.

On November 11, Ukraine’s armed forces chief stated that their struggling troops are not only facing elite Russian reinforcements in Kursk but are also working to bolster two encircled fronts in eastern Ukraine while preparing for a potential infantry assault in the south.

Russian Offensive in Eastern Ukraine Poses Significant Threat

According to a source from the General Staff, the Kurakhove area currently represents the most critical threat to Kyiv, with Russian troops advancing at a rate of 200-300 meters per day. They have successfully penetrated certain regions, utilizing armored vehicles supported by anti-drone systems.

Kurakhove serves as a crucial link to the vital logistical center of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.

The Ukrainian General Staff estimates that Russia has approximately 575,000 soldiers engaged in the conflict in Ukraine, with plans to bolster this number to around 690,000.

Russia does not publicly disclose its troop levels, and Reuters has been unable to independently verify these statistics.

As Ukraine confronts a larger and more well-equipped adversary, it has focused on disrupting Russian logistics and supply lines by targeting weapons and ammunition depots, airfields, and other military installations deep within Russian territory.

Earlier this month, Ukraine received greater latitude to act after President Joe Biden reportedly lifted his objections to Kyiv using U.S.-supplied missiles against targets deep within Russia, a move prompted by North Korea’s involvement in the conflict.

Last week, Ukraine launched U.S. ATACMS and British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory, with one ATACMS strike hitting an arms depot located approximately 110 kilometers (70 miles) inside Russia.

In response, Moscow has pledged to retaliate against what it perceives as an escalation supported by Ukraine’s Western allies. On Thursday, Russia fired a new medium-range ballistic missile into the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, likely serving as a warning to NATO.

Ukrainian officials are currently in discussions with the United States and Britain about acquiring new air defense systems designed to shield Ukrainian cities and civilians from emerging long-range aerial threats.

According to a source from the Ukrainian General Staff, the military has taken steps to enhance air defenses over the capital, Kyiv, and is planning similar measures for the northern city of Sumy and Kharkiv in the northeast, both of which are close to the front lines.

Currently, Russia occupies about one-fifth of Ukraine, and President Vladimir Putin has expressed a desire for Kyiv to abandon its aspirations to join the NATO military alliance and withdraw from four regions of Ukraine that he partially controls—demands that Kyiv has firmly rejected as equivalent to surrender.

ICC warrants are obligatory, and the EU cannot selectively apply them, Borrell says

Asif Shahid

November 23, 2024

European Union governments are obligated to execute arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for two Israeli leaders and a Hamas commander, according to the EU‘s foreign policy chief on Saturday.

The ICC issued warrants on Thursday for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former defense minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Ibrahim Al-Masri, citing alleged crimes against humanity.

All EU member states are signatories to the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the ICC.

While several EU nations have indicated their readiness to fulfill their obligations under the statute, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has extended an invitation to Netanyahu, assuring him of safety during a potential visit.

Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, emphasized during a visit to Cyprus for a workshop involving Israeli and Palestinian peace activists that “the states that signed the Rome convention are obliged to implement the decision of the court. It’s not optional.”

Countries seeking to join the EU are also subject to the same obligations, he stated.

“It would be quite ironic if new members were held to standards that existing members do not meet,” he remarked to Reuters.

The United States dismissed the ICC’s ruling, while Israel characterized the ICC’s actions as antisemitic.

“Whenever someone critiques the policy of an Israeli government, they are labeled as antisemitic,” Borrell noted, as his tenure as the EU’s foreign policy chief comes to a close this month.

“I have the right to express my criticism of the Israeli government’s decisions, whether it be Mr. Netanyahu or another leader, without facing accusations of antisemitism. This is unacceptable. Enough is enough.”

According to Gaza officials, Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza has resulted in approximately 44,000 Palestinian deaths and has displaced nearly the entire population of the enclave, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis.

Israel initiated its military action following the Hamas-led assault on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 individuals in southern Israel, with over 250 others reported as hostages, according to Israeli sources.

The ICC judges concluded that there are sufficient grounds to suspect that Netanyahu and Gallant bear criminal responsibility for actions such as murder, persecution, and the use of starvation as a method of warfare, all of which are part of a “widespread and systematic assault on the civilian population of Gaza.”

The warrant issued for Masri includes allegations of mass killings that occurred during the attacks on October 7, 2023. Israel has stated that Masri has been killed.

Trump’s return has reignited Israeli settlers’ ambitions for dominance over the West Bank

Asif Shahid

November 23, 2024

A view of the Israeli settlement Shilo near the Palestinian town of Turmus Ayya near Ramallah, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Following a significant increase in Israeli settlement activities, certain settler proponents in the occupied West Bank are turning to Donald Trump to realize their aspiration of asserting sovereignty over the region, which Palestinians view as central to their future state.

Since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to power leading a far-right nationalist coalition two years ago, the West Bank has experienced a dramatic expansion of Jewish settlements. This period has also seen a surge in settler violence, prompting sanctions from the United States.

Recently, Israeli flags have begun to appear on hilltops in the Jordan Valley, areas claimed by some settlers, raising concerns among local Palestinians about the potential for increased control over these territories. Some settlers expressed their hopes for Trump’s success prior to the election.

“We are optimistic and somewhat buoyant,” stated Yisrael Medad, an activist and writer advocating for Israel’s annexation of the West Bank, as he spoke to Reuters from his home in the settlement of Shilo, where he has resided for over forty years.

Settlers have welcomed Trump’s appointment of several officials known for their pro-Israel stance, including ambassador Mike Huckabee, an evangelical Christian who has asserted that the West Bank is not occupied and prefers the term “communities” over “settlements.”

In the past month, Israeli government ministers and settler advocates with connections to the U.S. Christian right have increasingly promoted the previously marginal concept of “restoring sovereignty” over the West Bank in their public statements. However, the Netanyahu administration has yet to make any official declaration on this issue, and a spokesperson for Netanyahu’s office declined to provide comments for this report.

It remains uncertain whether Trump will support a strategy that jeopardizes Washington’s goal of a broader agreement under the Abraham Accords aimed at normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a nation that, like many others, does not recognize Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank.

According to Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator for both Democratic and Republican administrations, “Trump’s ambition to expand the Abraham Accords will be a primary focus,” reflecting his understanding of Trump’s foreign policy priorities.

He added, “The Saudis will not seriously consider joining if Israel officially annexes the West Bank.”

Such annexation would effectively extinguish any prospects for a two-state solution that envisions an independent Palestine and would further complicate efforts to address the ongoing conflict in Gaza, which has also affected neighboring Lebanon.

During his first term, Trump relocated the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and reversed the longstanding U.S. stance that settlements are illegal. However, in 2020, his proposal to establish a limited Palestinian state along existing borders hindered Netanyahu’s aspirations for Israeli sovereignty over the region.

The president-elect has yet to disclose his intentions regarding the region. Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for the Trump transition team, refrained from addressing policy inquiries, stating only that he aims to “restore peace through strength globally.”

In contrast, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a leading advocate for settlement expansion within the government, expressed optimism last week that Israel could annex the West Bank as soon as next year with backing from the Trump administration.

Israel Ganz, chairman of the Yesha Council, which represents Jewish communities in the West Bank, conveyed in an interview his hope that the Trump administration would permit the Israeli government to proceed with its plans.

Prior to the November 5 election, Ganz led a prayer gathering for a Trump victory at the site of an ancient Byzantine basilica in Shilo. “We prayed for divine guidance towards better days for both the United States and Israel,” he remarked. Shilo has been a favored destination for U.S. politicians, including Mike Huckabee and Pete Hegseth, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Defense.

Recently, Huckabee informed Arutz Sheva, an Israeli news platform associated with Smotrich’s Religious Zionism movement, that any decisions regarding annexation would rest with the Israeli government. He has not yet responded to requests for further comments.

Wasel Abu Yousef, a senior official in the Palestine Liberation Organization, asserted that any actions taken by the Israeli government “will not alter the reality that this land belongs to the Palestinians.”

Shilo, along with the adjacent settlement of Eli, is located near the center of the West Bank, approximately an hour’s drive from Jerusalem via Route 60, a well-maintained highway that starkly contrasts with the deteriorating roads linking the Palestinian cities in the region.

Bashar al-Qaryouti, a Palestinian activist from the nearby village of Qaryut, expressed concerns that the growth of Shilo and Eli has effectively encircled Palestinian villages in central West Bank.

Al-Qaryouti noted a rise in settlers constructing homes without waiting for official permits from the Israeli government, a trend also observed by Peace Now, an Israeli organization that monitors settlement activities.

“This is occurring in real time,” Al-Qaryouti stated in a phone interview with Reuters. “Settlers now control vast areas across the central West Bank.”

The West Bank, referred to by many in Israel as Judea and Samaria based on historical Biblical references, is a kidney-shaped region measuring about 100 km (60 miles) in length and 50 km (30 miles) in width. It has been a focal point of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since Israel captured it during the 1967 Middle East war.

Most nations regard this territory as occupied and consider the settlements illegal under international law, a stance reaffirmed by the U.N.’s highest court in July.

According to U.N. estimates, around 750,000 Palestinians were displaced during the establishment of Israel in 1948. Palestinians view the West Bank as the core of a future independent state, alongside the Mediterranean enclave of Gaza to the south.

However, the proliferation of Jewish settlements, which have expanded significantly across the West Bank since the Oslo interim peace accords three decades ago, has dramatically altered the landscape.

Modern Shilo, recognized as the location of the tabernacle established by the ancient Israelites following their return from Egyptian exile, was founded in the 1970s. It resembles a gated community characterized by tranquil streets and well-maintained suburban residences, with a population of approximately 5,000 in 2022.

Proponents of Jewish settlements assert that their Biblical ties to the land justify their presence, regardless of international legal perspectives. “Even if the Byzantines, the Romans, the Mameluks, and Ottomans ruled it, it was our land,” stated Medad.

Consequently, advocates for the settlements dismiss the term “annexation,” arguing that it implies the appropriation of foreign territory.

In 2023, construction of settlements in the West Bank reached unprecedented levels. Following the outbreak of conflict in Gaza last October, numerous new roads and construction projects have significantly altered the landscape of the region.

Despite criticism from the Biden administration, these developments have continued unabated. Concurrently, incidents of violence perpetrated by Jewish settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank have escalated, particularly around Shilo, prompting international outrage and recent sanctions from the U.S. and Europe against individuals identified as key participants.

Settler leaders, including Ganz, maintain that violence is incompatible with their movement. They argue that their presence in areas adjacent to Palestinian towns and cities enhances security for the broader Israeli population.

A series of measures have been implemented to strengthen Israel’s presence in the West Bank since the formation of Netanyahu’s government, which includes a coalition agreement affirming “The Jewish people have a natural right to the Land of Israel.”

“We are making significant changes on the ground to establish the reality that Israel is present in Judea and Samaria,” stated Ohad Tal, chairman of Smotrich’s parliamentary faction, while a red Trump MAGA hat sat on a shelf in his Knesset office.

A comprehensive framework has been developed “to effectively assert sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, ensuring that the Jewish presence is an irreversible reality.”

Responsibilities related to settlements that were previously managed by the military have now been transferred to the Settlement Administration, a civilian entity directly accountable to Finance Minister Smotrich, who also oversees the defense ministry, thereby managing operations in the West Bank.

In 2024, nearly 6,000 acres (2,400 hectares) have been designated as Israeli state land, a classification that facilitates settlement construction, marking the largest annual increase on record and representing half of all areas designated as state land in the last thirty years, according to a report by Peace Now in October.

Over the past year, at least 43 new settler outposts have been established, a significant rise compared to an average of fewer than 7 annually since 1996, as indicated by a separate analysis from Peace Now.

The outposts, typically extensions of established communities situated on adjacent hilltops, facilitate the growth of the original settlements by providing several kilometers of new roads and infrastructure. Many of these developments have been constructed in violation of Israeli law, yet the Yesha Council reports that nearly 70 of them received government backing this year.

“It’s a strategic move because they appear unremarkable,” commented Ziv Stahl, a director at Yesh Din, an Israeli organization that monitors settlement activities. “They are not formally declaring, ‘We are annexing the West Bank’; instead, they are simply proceeding with the actions.”

Mark Rutte held a meeting with Donald Trump in Florida

Asif Shahid

November 23, 2024

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte held a meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida, on Friday, as confirmed by a spokesperson for the military alliance on Saturday.

According to spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah, the two leaders addressed various global security challenges confronting the Alliance. On the same day, NATO refrained from commenting on Dutch media reports indicating that Rutte, a former prime minister of the Netherlands, had traveled to Florida aboard a Dutch government aircraft for the meeting with Trump.

Rutte has been recognized as one of the most effective European leaders in establishing a productive working relationship with Trump during his initial term as U.S. president from 2017 to 2021.

A significant Israeli airstrike has struck central Beirut, resulting in 11 fatalities

Asif Shahid

November 23, 2024

A machinery clears rubble at a site of an Israeli strike, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, in Beirut, Lebanon.

A significant airstrike in central Beirut on Saturday resulted in the deaths of 11 individuals, according to the Lebanese civil defense. The attack reverberated throughout the capital as Israel intensified its military operations against the Iran-aligned Hezbollah group.

The strike led to the destruction of an eight-story building, resulting in numerous casualties and injuries, as reported by Lebanon’s National News Agency. Footage from Al Jadeed, a Lebanese news outlet, displayed at least one building in ruins and several others severely damaged in the vicinity.

Israel reportedly employed bunker buster bombs during the assault, creating a substantial crater, with the scent of explosives lingering in the air hours later.

The explosions occurred around 4 a.m. local time (0200 GMT), with security sources indicating that at least four bombs were deployed in the operation.

This incident marked the fourth Israeli airstrike targeting central Beirut within the week, diverging from the majority of Israel’s strikes, which have predominantly focused on the Hezbollah-dominated southern suburbs. Notably, an Israeli airstrike on Sunday resulted in the death of a Hezbollah media official in the Ras al-Nabaa area of central Beirut.

A man whose family was affected by the attack attempted to console a distressed woman outside a hospital. Nearby, car windows were shattered.

“There was dust and destroyed buildings, people were running and screaming. My wife is in the hospital, my daughter is in the hospital, my aunt is in the hospital,” said Nemir Zakariya, who displayed a photo of his daughter.

This is my younger child, and my son has also sustained injuries. My daughter is currently at the American University of Beirut Medical Centre, and this is the situation we are facing.

In September, Israel initiated a significant military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon, following nearly a year of escalating tensions stemming from the Gaza conflict. The offensive involved extensive airstrikes across various regions of Lebanon and the deployment of ground troops in the southern areas.

According to Lebanon’s health ministry, Israeli airstrikes resulted in at least 62 fatalities and 111 injuries on Thursday alone, raising the total death toll since October 2023 to 3,645, with 15,355 individuals injured. These statistics do not differentiate between combatants and civilians.

Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have accused Israel of conducting indiscriminate bombings that result in civilian casualties. In response, Israel has denied these claims, asserting that it takes significant measures to minimize civilian harm.

During the same timeframe, Hezbollah’s actions have led to over 100 deaths in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, including more than 70 soldiers who were killed in various strikes and combat operations in southern Lebanon, as reported by Israel.

The conflict escalated when Hezbollah, a key ally of Tehran in the region, began firing in support of its Palestinian counterpart, Hamas, following the latter’s attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.

This week, a U.S. mediator visited Lebanon and Israel to facilitate a ceasefire. The envoy, Amos Hochstein, reported that progress was made during discussions in Beirut before proceeding to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz.

Putin warned the West: withdraw support for Ukraine or face Russia

Hammad Saeed

November 23, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting

Vladimir Putin’s hypersonic missile conveyed a clear warning to the West regarding Ukraine: withdraw your support, or face the possibility of Russia targeting U.S. and British military installations.

On Thursday, Russia launched a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile named “Oreshnik,” or Hazel Tree, aimed at Ukraine. This action was described by Putin as a direct retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory using U.S. and British missiles.

In a special announcement from the Kremlin shortly after 8 p.m. Moscow time, the Russian president indicated that the conflict was escalating towards a global confrontation, although he did not invoke nuclear threats.

Thus far, Putin has refrained from directly attacking the West, a move that could provoke a direct clash with NATO—a scenario that U.S. President Joe Biden warned in March 2022 could escalate into World War III.

In his remarks, the Kremlin leader warned the West that Russia maintains the right to target military facilities in nations that allow Ukraine to use their missiles against Russia, specifically naming the United States and Britain.

“Putin is signaling to the West to stop—halt—withdraw,” stated Sergei Markov, a former adviser to the Kremlin, in an interview with Reuters.

“The message Putin is sending globally is that we view these attacks as a direct involvement of the United States and Britain in a conflict against Russia,” he added. “However, we are not retaliating with full force at this moment because these attacks will not alter the war’s outcome.”

A Russian source, who requested anonymity due to the delicate nature of the situation, indicated that Putin had suggested a desire to avoid escalation, although the likelihood of Russia resorting to nuclear weapons remains significant.

The source did not specify whether this referred to tactical battlefield weapons or long-range nuclear missiles.

NUCLEAR THRESHOLD

President Biden has reversed his stance on allowing Ukraine to use U.S. missiles against targets deep within Russia, a change in U.S. policy that has gained urgency following Donald Trump’s election victory on November 5, according to sources familiar with the situation, as reported by Reuters on Thursday.

This decision may serve to “Trump-proof” certain aspects of Biden’s Ukraine strategy by bolstering Kyiv’s position should U.S. support wane, one source noted.

Russian officials have characterized Biden’s move as a reckless action by a lame-duck administration, intended to create a significant crisis for Trump to address upon his inauguration in January.

This places Putin in a challenging position: escalating now could trigger the very crisis he seeks to avoid, while refraining from action might lead the West to perceive him as weak, prompting further encroachments on clear Russian boundaries.

When Putin warned in September that Russia would revise its nuclear doctrine to potentially allow a nuclear response to conventional Western missile strikes, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken remarked that this was not the first instance of Putin “rattling the nuclear saber.”

On the day Ukraine launched U.S.-made ATACMS missiles into Russian territory, Putin approved the reduction of the nuclear threshold he had previously indicated two months prior.

Following this adjustment, the Pentagon stated that the United States had not altered its nuclear posture and had not observed any changes in Russia’s nuclear stance.

The Pentagon and the UK’s Ministry of Defence have not yet provided a response regarding any adjustments to their security measures following Putin’s threats against their military facilities.

When questioned about the primary message conveyed in Putin’s remarks, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on Friday that the essential point is Russia’s intention to respond to “reckless actions” by Western nations involved in strikes against Russia.

“The Russian side has clearly showcased its capabilities, and the outlines of potential retaliatory measures, should our concerns be disregarded, are distinctly defined,” he remarked.

In addition to cautioning that U.S. and British military sites could be at risk, Putin indicated that America’s plans to position short- and intermediate-range missiles in Europe and Asia might compel Moscow to adopt similar measures, thereby bringing its military capabilities closer to the West.

“Putin is unmistakably indicating a greater dependence on strategic weaponry—such as nuclear and longer-range missiles—to pressure the U.S. and NATO into ceasing their support for Ukraine,” noted Jon Wolfsthal, a former special assistant to President Barack Obama and current director of global risk at the Federation of American Scientists.

“I do not believe he intends to resort to nuclear options in a conflict he is currently winning, but he seems to want to instill significant concern, possibly to facilitate a withdrawal by Trump,” he added.

“Die Hard”

Markov indicated that Putin’s remarks were aimed at his domestic audience in Russia, where there is significant pressure for him to confront the West decisively.

Pro-Putin Telegram channels have referred to the 72-year-old leader as a “Krepkiy Oreshnik,” a clever reference to both a missile and the 1988 film “Die Hard,” which translates to “Krepkiy Oreshek” in Russian, meaning a tough nut.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov commended Putin for a statement that he claimed had been long awaited by thousands of soldiers. “They are comfortable in the West, enjoying peace. Let them experience firsthand what a genuine war entails,” Kadyrov stated. “Did they seek a real conflict with Russia? Then let them fully experience it!” He emphasized the need to showcase the full destructive capability of Russia’s long-range weaponry.

Putin asserted that Ukraine’s attack using ATACMS on November 19 did not cause significant damage. However, he noted that a subsequent strike with British Storm Shadow missiles on the Kursk region targeted a command center, resulting in casualties.

The launch of what the United States suspects to be a new ballistic missile serves as a clear, albeit measured, warning to the West, according to analysts.

Kremlin spokesperson Peskov stated that Russia was not technically required to notify Washington about the missile strike, as it involved an intermediate-range missile rather than an intercontinental one. However, he noted that Moscow had still provided a warning to the U.S. 30 minutes prior to the strike.

Although Putin deliberately refrained from mentioning nuclear weapons in his remarks, the new hypersonic missile launched by Russia at Dnipro in Ukraine is capable of carrying nuclear warheads and has the range to reach Europe or the west coast of the United States.

In conclusion, Putin cautioned the West against underestimating his determination. “We believe we have the right to target the military installations of those nations that permit their weapons to be used against our assets,” he stated. “Anyone who doubts this is mistaken—there will always be a response.”

ICC arrest warrants: ‘Netanyahu’s influence has waned’

Asif Shahid

November 23, 2024

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has drawn the ire of Israel following its contentious decision to issue arrest warrants for Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant. This action pertains to alleged crimes committed during the Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip, which were a response to the deadly Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023.

In its statement, the ICC indicated there were “reasonable grounds to believe” that both Netanyahu and Gallant had engaged in war crimes and crimes against humanity, particularly by “employing starvation as a method of warfare” and “deliberately” targeting civilians. Additionally, Hamas military chief Mohammad Deif faces accusations of crimes against humanity, including murder, torture, and rape.

Netanyahu swiftly dismissed the ICC’s ruling against him and Gallant, labeling it as “anti-Semitic.”

He stated that Israel “rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions and accusations made against it,” asserting that the ICC judges are motivated by “anti-Semitic hatred of Israel.” He further characterized the decision as a “modern-day Dreyfus trial,” referencing the notorious 1894 case of French Jewish army captain Alfred Dreyfus, who was wrongfully convicted of treason and has since become a symbol of anti-Semitic injustice.

Both Israel and the United States are not signatories to the Rome Statute that established the ICC and do not acknowledge the court’s authority. However, the movements of Netanyahu and Gallant are now effectively constrained, as each of the court’s 124 member states is theoretically obligated to arrest them should they enter member territory.

The ICC lacks a dedicated police force to enforce its warrants, relying instead on the cooperation of its member states to uphold its rulings. EU’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, emphasized that the arrest warrants must be honored and executed, noting that all 27 EU nations are members of the ICC.

Currently, France, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, and the Netherlands have expressed their intention to comply with the ICC’s ruling and would proceed with the arrest of the individuals should they enter their territories. Italy’s Defence Minister, Guido Crosetto, remarked that while he believes it is “incorrect” to compare Netanyahu and Gallant to Hamas, “we would have to arrest them” if they were to set foot in Italy.

International law experts view the issuance of these warrants as a significant development for the ICC. Johann Soufi, an international lawyer and former head of the legal department of the UN Agency for Palestinian Refugees in Gaza (2020-2023), described these decisions as a “historic moment” for the court.

The significance of the ICC’s recent actions cannot be overstated

Johann Soufi emphasizes that the issuance of these warrants by the ICC addresses the aspirations of victims and those who advocate for international justice. While the decision may not be unexpected, it aligns with the legal assessments of numerous international law experts, who characterize both the Israeli military actions in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, as well as the Hamas assault on October 7, as breaches of international humanitarian law and offenses under the ICC statute. ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan had previously reached this conclusion when he requested the court’s judges to issue these arrest warrants six months prior.

These allegations underscore the severity of the crimes occurring in Gaza, which are being documented daily by local residents, humanitarian organizations, and experts tasked with evaluating such violations. An increasing number of specialists are advancing their legal interpretations, with some labeling specific actions as genocide—most notably Francesca Albanese, the special rapporteur on human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories, along with the UN Special Committee responsible for investigating Israeli actions in these territories.

Is this a pivotal decision?

Johann Soufi responded affirmatively, stating that this represents a significant moment for the ICC, one that will ultimately enhance its credibility. Since its inception, the court has frequently faced accusations of being a political tool, unable to confront those in power. It is important to recognize that for nearly two decades, the individuals prosecuted were predominantly African officials, most of whom held mid-level positions.

A crucial turning point occurred in 2023 when the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, for crimes committed in Ukraine. This marked the first instance in which the court has charged a leader of a major power, particularly one with nuclear capabilities. Nevertheless, criticisms persist, including claims that the court serves Western interests and fails to investigate crimes committed by Western allies, such as those in Afghanistan or Palestine.

These criticisms have intensified in recent months, particularly regarding the court’s perceived inaction concerning alleged crimes in Gaza. Many, especially in the Global South, including countries like Mexico, Chile, and South Africa, had anticipated these prosecutions.

This decision is also historic as it underscores that all individuals—regardless of their power or proximity to Western interests—must be held accountable for actions that violate our shared moral standards. It affirms the principle that all individuals are equal under international law and within international jurisdictions, whether they are the perpetrators or the victims of crimes.

Netanyahu responded strongly to the arrest warrant, labeling the court as “anti-Semitic.” Are the magistrates of the ICC influenced by politics?

Johann Soufi stated that this is not the case. It is a common and often systematic response for individuals facing prosecution for international crimes to criticize and undermine the authority of the jurisdiction involved. Netanyahu’s criticisms of the court, along with his broader attacks on any international body that condemns the actions occurring in Gaza, align with this pattern.

Over the years, the ICC has proven its ability to maintain independence and impartiality. This very independence and impartiality are what the parties to the Rome Statute, as well as victims and the international community at large, expect from the court.

Is it plausible to envision a scenario where Netanyahu or Gallant might face the ICC, given that Israel has not ratified the Rome Statute? Could a member state genuinely take the initiative to apprehend them?

In response to this question, Johann Soufi states that this is a speculation about the future. His professional experience indicates that the circumstances of one day may not reflect those of another. Currently, and this also applies to Vladimir Putin, the likelihood of these two Israeli officials being arrested appears minimal. Nevertheless, it is clear that Binyamin Netanyahu’s situation has significantly changed. There are now 124 member states that have a legal obligation to detain him if he enters their territory.

Countries like France and the Netherlands have already expressed their readiness to fully cooperate with the court and to execute these arrest warrants should the situation arise. I remain optimistic that other nations will adopt a similar stance, adhering to their international obligations. Signing the Rome Statute entails a commitment to uphold it; this principle is fundamental to international law.

Is the credibility of international law in jeopardy?

Johann Soufi asserts that it is indeed at risk, as the foundation of international law relies heavily on the commitment of states to uphold and enforce it. This is an ongoing struggle, where each challenge diminishes its authority.

For instance, consider Mongolia’s failure to fulfill its obligation to detain him during Putin’s visit last September. This lapse has certainly undermined the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Moreover, the integrity of the states themselves is also in question. When a state disregards international law, which it has pledged to honor, it inevitably diminishes its political standing and exacerbates global instability. The core issue is whether we aspire to create a world governed by law or one dominated by power.

China has increased its uranium imports from Russia threefold

Asif Shahid

November 23, 2024

Gas centrifuges for uranium isotope separation at a Rosatom plant in Novouralsk, Russia.

China is set to become the leading importer of Russian nuclear fuel this year, following Moscow’s prohibition on enriched uranium exports to the United States in response to selective restrictions imposed by Washington.

In the last ten months, China has acquired $849 million worth of enriched uranium from Russia, marking a 3.2-fold increase compared to the same timeframe last year, as per customs data reviewed by RIA Novosti. Notably, imports in October surged to $216 million, doubling from September’s figures.

South Korea has also ramped up its purchases, totaling $650 million during the same period, positioning itself as the second-largest importer of Russian nuclear fuel.

In contrast, the United States, which was Russia’s primary customer last year, has slashed its imports by nearly one-third, acquiring $574 million worth of Russian nuclear fuel over nine months, thus falling to third place.

Earlier this year, Washington implemented a ban on the purchase of Russian low-enriched uranium but permitted the Department of Energy to grant waivers until 2028 in situations where no alternatives are available or if the shipments are considered “in the US national interest.”

In 2022, Russia was the largest foreign supplier to the United States, accounting for nearly 25% of the enriched uranium used in US commercial nuclear reactors, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

In retaliation to the restrictions imposed by Washington, Moscow implemented a ban on the export of enriched uranium to the United States last week. This ban extends to shipments to other nations that are part of foreign trade agreements with entities registered in the U.S. Exceptions will only be granted for supplies under one-time licenses that receive approval from the Federal Service for Technical and Export Control, provided they are consistent with Russia’s national interests.

Russia possesses the largest uranium enrichment facility in the world, which represents nearly half of the global capacity. The country’s share of the enriched uranium market is estimated at approximately 40%, with exports valued at $2.7 billion.

During a government meeting in September, President Vladimir Putin remarked that certain countries are accumulating Russian resources and goods while simultaneously imposing restrictions on Russia. He proposed the idea of limiting exports of specific strategically significant raw materials, including uranium, as a countermeasure to Western efforts to restrict Russia’s access to foreign products.

Putin announces large-scale production of Oreshnik missiles

Asif Shahid

November 23, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Friday the initiation of serial production for the new Oreshnik ballistic missile system.

This decision follows the system’s first combat deployment earlier this week in Ukraine.

During a meeting at the Kremlin with Defense Ministry officials and representatives from the defense industry, Putin emphasized that the Oreshnik missile system is not merely an upgrade of an existing Soviet-era weapon.

Rather, it represents a new innovation utilizing advanced hypersonic technology and modern materials. “It is the result of work done in the conditions of New Russia,” Putin stated, underscoring that the system has been designed to address current defense requirements.

He also confirmed that several Oreshnik systems are presently undergoing testing in Russia, and that the move towards mass production has already been established. “You can assume that the decision on production has been made. In fact, it is organized,” he remarked. Additional missile systems are anticipated to be supplied to Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces in the upcoming months.

The Oreshnik missile was first utilized in combat on Thursday, targeting a Ukrainian defense facility in Dnepropetrovsk. The specific site hit was Yuzhmash, one of Ukraine’s largest defense-industrial complexes, which was established during the Soviet era and is known for manufacturing missile systems and various weaponry.

President Putin stated that this missile deployment was a direct response to Ukraine’s assaults on Russian territory using long-range weapons supplied by Western nations, including American ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles.

Characterized as a medium-range, hypersonic weapon, the Oreshnik is engineered for precision strikes. The Defense Ministry reported that “all warheads” successfully hit their intended targets during this week’s operation.

The president commended the missile’s effective testing and combat use, highlighting the rapid development of the system.

Putin also stressed the necessity of ongoing testing and ramping up production levels. “I congratulate the military on the successful tests and advocate for the system’s adoption,” he remarked.

A pivotal week has transformed the Ukraine conflict, highlighted by a discussion with Putin and a trial military strike

Asif Shahid

November 23, 2024

A serviceman of 24th Mechanized brigade named after King Danylo of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fires a 2s5 "Hyacinth-s" self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops at a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region, Ukraine.

The situation began with a peace initiative that lacked support and culminated in a rare experimental missile strike, prompting Moscow to provide Washington with a 30-minute warning. The last week has significantly altered the trajectory of Ukraine’s prolonged conflict, moving at an unprecedented pace as Donald Trump’s inauguration approaches in January. This period signifies a major escalation, yet it risks being overshadowed by the prevailing war fatigue, warranting a summary of events.

On Sunday, the White House officially permitted Ukraine to launch missiles supplied by the U.S. into Russian territory, which Ukraine promptly executed on Monday. In retaliation, Moscow deployed an experimental medium-range missile, capable of hypersonic speeds and equipped with a multiple warhead system typically designated for nuclear use, targeting Dnipro on Thursday. President Putin asserted that the “Oreshnik” missile could bypass all Western air defenses.

Both nations accused each other of recklessness—specifically, the U.S. and Russia. This conflict is increasingly characterized by Washington’s urgent attempts to reverse Ukraine’s declining position on the battlefield, while Russia, the initial aggressor, is resorting to more perilous strategies to regain the deterrent power it has lost over the past three years.

Direct confrontation between the two powers seems unlikely; however, their involvement in Ukraine’s escalating global struggle is becoming more pronounced.

The situation has deteriorated rapidly. Just a week ago, discussions of peace sparked widespread outrage.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz took the initiative to contact Russian President Vladimir Putin, breaking a two-year period of isolation for the Kremlin leader from significant Western figures. Scholz aimed to appeal to pro-Russian constituents in eastern Germany ahead of upcoming elections, justifying his outreach by suggesting that if Trump intended to engage with Moscow, Europe should follow suit. This move angered Ukraine and Poland, while France and the UK appeared to harbor their own frustrations quietly.

The decision by the White House regarding weapons is unlikely to have been influenced by Scholz’s call. In fact, it has been indicated that President Joe Biden’s shift from months of hesitance in approving missile use within Russia was prompted by the involvement of North Korean troops alongside Russian forces. Likewise, Putin’s choice to deploy the Oreshnik missile appears to be a calculated move by Moscow to escalate tensions further. Both Moscow and Washington have signaled their intentions for months, although they seem somewhat surprised by the actions taken by their opponent this week.

The specifics surrounding the Oreshnik missile are crucial to understanding Putin’s intentions. While many details remain ambiguous, most analyses, along with Putin’s statements, suggest that this is a new missile, likely hypersonic and not nuclear at this stage, but capable of delivering multiple warheads in a manner typically associated with nuclear arms. Putin claimed that its speed of 3 kilometers per second renders all Western air defenses ineffective. U.S. and NATO officials described the missile as medium-range and “experimental,” a characterization that may initially seem to downplay its importance but could actually highlight a growing divide with Moscow.

In 2019, President Trump withdrew from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty, a significant agreement that restricted the development of such weapons, citing Russian violations. The insistence by Western officials that this missile, which appeared to have nuclear capabilities, was “intermediate” in range may have been an acknowledgment of Russia’s ongoing development of such weapons in the absence of the now-defunct INF treaty. This could also serve as a reminder to Trump that Moscow has been actively pursuing the weapons he claimed they were developing during his first term.

Ukraine has identified the device as the “Kedr,” which was reportedly first mentioned in Russian state media in 2021. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence, stated on Friday that it is a “medium-range ballistic missile, capable of carrying nuclear weapons.” He expressed concern, noting that the use of the missile in a non-nuclear capacity serves as a warning that Russia has lost its rationality. Budanov indicated that Ukraine believes two prototypes of the Kedr were developed by October, but he emphasized that “it is not a mass-produced item, thankfully.”

In the coming weeks, it will become clear whether the Oreshnik represents a singular message or a new strategy. Its deployment has heightened anxiety in Kyiv, particularly following the abrupt closure of the US Embassy on Wednesday due to an aerial threat, which has intensified fears that Moscow is resorting to measures it had reserved for a final confrontation with a major power.

However, the most concerning news of the week may lie beyond the overt geopolitical tensions and alarming developments over Dnipro.

The United Kingdom’s Defence Intelligence, typically a strong supporter of the Ukrainian military, reported on Thursday that the front line is more “unstable” than at any point since the invasion began. This description suggests that Kyiv’s forces are facing significant challenges along the front, aligning with the consistently bleak assessments reported by CNN from military and open sources.

The situation appears dire in all directions. To the south of Kharkiv, Russian forces are making advances toward the city of Kupiansk. Supply lines are under threat in the eastern Donbas region. Additionally, southern Zaporizhzhia is facing increased pressure, while Moscow continues its efforts to push Ukraine out of the Kursk border area.

The Biden administration may expedite the deployment of anti-personnel mines and announce additional ammunition supplies, but significant changes are already occurring in the trenches where snow is accumulating. In the most optimistic scenario, these developments may grant Moscow a territorial advantage as winter sets in.

During Trump’s presidency, discussions about negotiations gained momentum. However, the immediate reaction has been a rapid escalation of the conflict, potentially complicating any future ceasefire. The pressing concern is that this aggressive push for a more favorable negotiating stance could generate an uncontrollable momentum of its own.

Russia’s deployment of a nuclear-capable missile signifies a major shift from Cold War deterrence strategy

Asif Shahid

November 22, 2024

Aftermath of Russian missile strike in Dnipro, Ukraine.

Russia’s deployment of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile on Thursday represents a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This action signifies a critical and potentially perilous juncture in Moscow’s relations with the West.

Vladimir Putin‘s announcement of using a ballistic missile equipped with multiple warheads in offensive operations marks a notable shift from the long-standing Cold War principle of deterrence. Experts indicate that ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, referred to as “multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles” (MIRVs), have never been employed in combat situations before.

Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, stated, “To my knowledge, yes, it’s the first time MIRV has been used in combat.”

Historically, ballistic missiles have served as the foundation of deterrence, embodying the concept of “mutual assured destruction” (MAD) during the nuclear era. The rationale behind this strategy is that if a few missiles survive an initial nuclear strike, the remaining arsenal would possess sufficient capability to devastate several major cities of the aggressor, thereby ensuring that neither side can evade the repercussions of nuclear conflict.

In this context, ballistic missiles were intended to act as guardians against a future where nuclear weapons would never again be utilized in hostility. However, analysts, including Kristensen, contend that the introduction of MIRVed missiles could provoke, rather than deter, a preemptive strike.

The significant destructive potential of Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) positions them as both potential first-strike assets and primary targets for such strikes, as noted by Kristensen and his colleague Matt Korda from the Federation of American Scientists in a study released in March.

This is due to the fact that it is generally easier to neutralize multiple warheads before their launch rather than attempting to intercept them as they descend at hypersonic speeds toward their intended targets.

A recent statement from the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit organization based in the United States that advocates for scientific integrity, highlights a concerning “use them or lose them” dynamic. This scenario creates a compelling incentive for a preemptive strike during a crisis. The statement emphasized that a first strike aimed at eliminating a nation’s MIRVed missiles could severely impair that nation’s capacity for retaliation.

Footage from Thursday’s Russian missile strike illustrated multiple warheads descending at various angles toward their target, necessitating the interception of each warhead with an anti-missile system—a formidable challenge even for the most advanced air defense technologies.

Although the warheads that targeted the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday were not nuclear, their deployment in conventional military operations is likely to heighten tensions in an already precarious global environment.

Notably, Russia provided advance notice to the United States regarding the missile launch on Thursday. However, even with this prior warning, any subsequent actions by Putin’s administration are bound to escalate anxieties throughout Europe, prompting many to question whether the concept of deterrence has been fundamentally undermined.

MIRV Technology Around the Globe

MIRV technology is not exclusive to Russia and the United States. According to the Center for Arms Control and Non-proliferation, China has integrated this capability into its intercontinental ballistic missiles. Additionally, the United Kingdom and France, alongside Russia and the US, have long equipped their submarine-launched ballistic missiles with MIRV technology.

New entrants are also emerging in the MIRV landscape. Reports indicate that Pakistan conducted a test of a missile featuring multiple warheads in 2017, while India announced a successful test of a MIRVed ICBM earlier this year.

Analysts express greater concern regarding land-based MIRVs compared to those deployed on submarines. The stealthy nature of submarines makes them difficult to detect, whereas land-based missiles, particularly those housed in fixed silos, are more easily located and thus more vulnerable to attack.

In their March report, Kristensen and Korda highlighted the dangers associated with the expanding group of nations possessing MIRV capabilities, describing it as indicative of a troubling trend in global nuclear arsenals and an emerging arms race.

India’s announcement of MIRV success during a test that same month served as a significant warning sign, they noted.

“This follows China’s deployment of MIRVs on certain DF-5 ICBMs, Pakistan’s apparent interest in MIRVs for its Ababeel medium-range missile, and North Korea’s potential pursuit of similar technology. Furthermore, the United Kingdom has opted to increase its nuclear stockpile to facilitate the deployment of additional warheads on its submarine-launched missiles,” Kristensen and Korda stated.

They contend that an increase in MIRV warheads across various nations’ arsenals would significantly undermine crisis stability, encouraging leaders to launch their nuclear weapons preemptively during a crisis.

“A global landscape where nearly all nuclear-armed states possess substantial MIRV capabilities presents a far greater danger than our current geostrategic situation,” they concluded.

Israeli forces are reportedly using an AI-powered weapon system in Gaza, developed in collaboration with India

Asif Shahid

November 21, 2024

A military vehicle with a laser transits during an Israeli raid in Jenin, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank

Israeli forces are reportedly utilizing an AI-driven weapons system in Gaza, developed in collaboration with an Indian defense firm, which transforms conventional firearms into advanced computerized weaponry.

Israeli forces have deployed the Arbel weapons system in Gaza, according to media reports, following their extensive military operations in the area in response to the attacks on southern Israel on October 7.

Described as a “revolutionary game changer that enhances operator lethality and survivability,” the Arbel system upgrades machine guns and assault rifles—such as the Israeli-made Tavor, Carmel, and Negev—by employing algorithms that significantly improve the accuracy and efficiency of soldiers’ targeting capabilities.

Over the past 13 months, Israeli forces have been involved in numerous violent incidents, including bombings of schools, refugee camps, and hospitals, as well as extrajudicial killings in the streets of Gaza.

The number of women and children killed by Israeli military actions has surpassed casualties in any other conflict over the last two decades, with nearly 1,000 families completely wiped out.

Conservative estimates suggest that around 44,000 Palestinians have lost their lives, while a letter addressed to President Joe Biden from nearly 100 US medical professionals who have worked in Gaza estimated the death toll to exceed 118,000 as of October. Additionally, a letter published in the UK medical journal The Lancet indicated that the death toll could be over 180,000.

Defence analysts suggest that while the Arbel weapon system may not be as advanced or as commonly deployed as the “Lavender” or “The Gospel” AI weapon systems—both of which are believed to have significantly contributed to the high casualty figures in Gaza—Arbel marks a notable connection between India and Israel’s rapidly evolving AI warfare in Gaza, potentially influencing other global conflicts.

A UN report released in September expressed deep concern over the unprecedented destruction of civilian infrastructure and the alarming death toll in Gaza, highlighting serious issues regarding Israel’s use of artificial intelligence in its military operations.

The report, prepared by the Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices Affecting the Human Rights of the Palestinian People, noted that credible media sources indicated the Israeli military had relaxed its criteria for target selection while increasing the previously accepted ratio of civilian to combatant casualties.

The name Arbel, like many Israeli weapon systems, has biblical roots. It also refers to an Israeli town established on the site of the Palestinian village of Hitten, which was ethnically cleansed in 1948.

The specific contributions of each company in the development of Arbel remain uncertain; however, it is probable that IWI and Adani collaborated on the manufacturing of its components, including the electronics and AI system, with assembly likely occurring in Israel.

Initially presented as a partnership between Israeli Weapons Industries (IWI) and the Indian firm Adani Defence & Aerospace, Arbel was revealed at a defense expo in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, in October 2022. IWI operated as a state-owned entity in Israel from 1933 until 2005.

At that time, various Indian media outlets praised the weapon, labeling it “India’s first AI-based firing system.” However, in April 2024, six months into the conflict in Gaza, IWI reintroduced the weapon as “the first computerized weapon system.”

According to IWI, the weapon enhances the lethality, accuracy, and operator survivability by up to three times.

Israeli journalists were shown a demonstration in northern Israel, where they were informed that the system was being deployed to meet the specific needs of contemporary warfare.

Notably, there was no reference to the collaboration with Adani Defence & Aerospace, nor was there any acknowledgment of its prior unveiling at the defense expo 18 months earlier.

Additionally, the developers did not reveal that Israeli ground forces had been utilizing Arbel since their entry into Gaza in October 2023.

In the past year, several Indian firms have continued their collaboration with Israel in its expanding military operations in Gaza and the surrounding areas, with the explicit consent of the Indian government and judiciary.

However, the omission of Adani from IWI’s promotional materials has sparked concerns that the company may be cautious about facing public backlash after criticism arose from its earlier decision to supply drones to Israel shortly after the conflict in Gaza escalated. This move may also be an attempt to shield itself from liability should Israel face repercussions for its actions in Gaza.

“The use of AI weapons like the Arbel, which has been partially developed through Indian partnerships, highlights the growing significance of artificial intelligence in contemporary warfare,” stated Girish Linganna, a defense analyst in India.

“While this technology enhances military effectiveness, it simultaneously raises ethical dilemmas regarding increased lethality and the potential for misuse in conflict scenarios,” Linganna further noted.

Defense analysts indicate that due to the limited information available about the weapon technology, it remains uncertain how extensively it has been deployed in Gaza since the onset of the conflict.

Nevertheless, they agree that even if the weapon is designed to help combatants more accurately target enemy forces and minimize collateral damage, in the context of the Israeli military, it is likely that the Arbel has been employed to execute the devastation of Palestinian lives more effectively in Gaza.

A key insight into Israel’s extensive military operations in Gaza is that the intentional targeting of civilians was a central aim. Antony Loewenstein, an independent journalist with extensive experience in observing the technologies used in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, conveyed this information to US media.

“I have engaged with individuals in Gaza and witnessed firsthand the devastating human consequences of such violence. It is truly horrific,” stated Loewenstein, who authored The Palestine Laboratory: How Israel Exports The Technology of Occupation Around The World.

Noah Sylvia, a research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, supported Loewenstein’s observations, noting that the effectiveness of military tools is contingent upon the military’s operational protocols and adherence to international humanitarian law (IHL).

Sylvia emphasized that in militaries that dehumanize populations and frequently breach civilian protection norms, tools marketed as enhancing operational efficiency are often employed to escalate destruction against both territories and their inhabitants.

“The Israeli Defence Forces have shown a blatant disregard for civilian lives in Gaza, routinely targeting children with small arms, which suggests that technologies like Arbel could facilitate the more efficient killing of civilians, including children,” Sylvia remarked.

India and Gaza War

India’s involvement in the conflict between Israel and Gaza has come under scrutiny, particularly regarding the contribution of Indian weapon components. Over the past year, various Indian activists and legal professionals have urged the Indian government to cease military collaborations with Israel.

In February, reports indicated that 20 Indian-manufactured combat drones were sent to Israel, with an Indian news outlet asserting that the Hermes 900 drones would support “Israel’s needs in the Israel-Hamas war.”

Defense analysts indicated that given Israel’s reliance on Hermes drones for reconnaissance and air strikes in Gaza, it is highly probable that these drones were employed to enhance Israel’s military efforts.

Notably, these drones were co-produced by Adani-Elbit Advanced Systems India Ltd, a partnership between India’s Adani Defence and Aerospace and Israel’s prominent arms manufacturer, Elbit Systems.

In April, it was revealed that rocket engines, explosives, and cannon propellants were shipped from India to the Israeli port of Ashdod. Additionally, in May, another ship carrying weapons from India was denied entry to Spain due to its cargo of explosives destined for Israel.

The recent disclosure of an AI weapon developed in collaboration with Israel being deployed in Gaza is expected to renew demands for an arms embargo, according to activists and observers.

Despite these developments, there have been no significant shifts in government policy, as India’s highest court continues to support the existing relationship. India’s strong alliance with Israel has positioned Delhi as one of the most vocal proponents of Israel’s US-backed military actions in Gaza.

Observers have noted that while India has expressed support for a ceasefire, its significant investments in Israel’s military industrial sector and armed strategies make it unlikely for Delhi to endorse an arms embargo, despite its calls for a ceasefire in Gaza.

In September, this situation was highlighted when the Indian Supreme Court rejected a petition aimed at halting military exports from India.

“It can indeed be challenging to pinpoint the exact production location of systems like the Arbel, particularly because defense companies and governments often keep such information opaque due to security and geopolitical concerns,” Linganna remarked.

Israel, India, and AI

In a context where India-Israel partnerships are often celebrated to an exaggerated extent, it remains unclear why Adani’s involvement has been downplayed in the discussions surrounding Arbel.

When the system was introduced to the Indian audience in October 2022, Ashish Rajvanshi, CEO of Adani Defence & Aerospace, characterized it as enhancing soldiers’ lethality and survivability, particularly during high-stress and exhausting situations.

Reiterating Rajvanshi’s description at a defense exhibition in France in June 2024, Ronen Hamudot, executive vice president for marketing and sales at IWI, stated that Arbel includes “an electronic trigger with a new firing mode, improving accuracy in critical moments where every second matters.”

Linganna pointed out that the sensitivity surrounding the ongoing conflict in Gaza, along with the potential backlash companies might face for their involvement, could explain Adani’s absence from promotional materials.

He added that strategic or political factors might also play a role, as highlighting a foreign partner’s involvement could complicate diplomatic relations or influence public opinion.

However, this does not imply that Adani is not leveraging the situation behind the scenes to promote its “combat-proven” products to clients in other markets.

Marwa Fatafta, the Middle East policy and advocacy director for Access Now, a digital rights organization, stated that Israel is utilizing Gaza as a testing ground to present to the world “a new and alarming model for tech-enabled warfare… this time through Indian-Israeli military technology.”

Fatafta remarked that technology rarely remains confined to a single location, emphasizing that “the lawlessness and impunity with which Israel perpetrates serious crimes using AI should alarm everyone.”

At the same time, military and technological collaborations are rapidly increasing, with Israel viewing Delhi as a source of affordable labor and a market for its products, both domestically and internationally. A key aspect of this interest in India is the emphasis on AI.

In recent years, the Indian government has identified AI as a crucial driver for accelerating economic growth in the nation.

From 2013 to 2022, Indian AI firms reportedly attracted the sixth-largest investments in AI globally, totaling an impressive US$7.73 billion.

A report released earlier this year indicates that the Indian artificial intelligence market is projected to expand between US$17 billion and US$22 billion by 2027. Experts predict that India will emerge as one of the largest reservoirs of AI talent globally.

This potential has attracted the attention of the Israeli government, academic institutions, and investors, who are increasingly looking towards Indian startups and educational establishments.

A recent study revealed that following Israel’s military actions in Gaza, there have been at least two dozen collaborations, including meetings and memorandums of understanding, between Israeli universities and companies in robotics, AI, and defense research with their Indian counterparts.

Trade union leaders opposing these developments have characterized them as an effort to integrate Indian universities into the burgeoning Indo-Israeli military-industrial complex.

During an AI bootcamp for Indian startups organized by the Israeli government earlier this month, Reuven Azar, Israel’s ambassador to India, stated that India offers Israel both a domestic market and access to third-party markets, particularly in the United States and Europe.

He remarked, “Numerous Israeli companies are eager to collaborate in developing technologies, as well as in commercializing and producing them here in India. This initiative is crucial for us as we aim to enhance our technological exports and capabilities on a global scale.”

The growth of AI weaponry

Activists in India, who have been protesting against their government’s involvement in Israel’s conflict with Gaza, expressed outrage over the ongoing weapon collaborations between the two nations. They highlighted the unprecedented atrocities occurring in Gaza, as well as in the occupied West Bank and Lebanon.

The fact that these partnerships are now venturing into the unsettling realm of AI, which introduces even greater ambiguity and potential for mass violence, is seen as unfathomable.

“It is deeply troubling to witness the concern among people in India regarding the genocide in Gaza, yet they feel powerless to effect meaningful change,” stated an activist who requested anonymity due to fears of retaliation, in an interview with US media.

Observers point out that Arbel is likely indicative of a larger trend in defense, where AI is being rapidly integrated into weapon systems worldwide.

They suggest that more AI-driven systems are being co-developed, potentially encompassing drones, surveillance technologies, and advanced autonomous systems that could be exported globally.

This concern has prompted activists monitoring the rise of big tech to warn against underestimating India’s potential as a future center for AI weapons production.

Loewenstein argues that without legal consequences for the mass killing of civilians, these so-called AI tools will only continue to spread.

“Considering that India is already Israel’s largest arms purchaser—official statistics indicate 40 to 45 percent, though I suspect the actual figure is higher—I fear that these tools may be utilized by Indian forces domestically or, worse, exported worldwide,” Loewenstein remarked.

“I am concerned that such tools could be sold to various regimes and governments—whether democratic or authoritarian—that may exploit them for their own malicious purposes,” Loewenstein added.

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