In his initial global engagements following Donald Trump‘s reelection as U.S. President, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a diplomatic initiative aimed at countering anticipated new tariffs and positioning China to take advantage of possible future divisions between Washington and its allies.
Throughout a series of meetings, from APEC in Peru to G20 in Brazil over the past week, Xi aimed to differentiate himself from Trump’s “America First” approach, portraying himself as a reliable advocate for the multilateral global trade framework.
Summit organizers, diplomats, and negotiators have noted a significant change in the approach of Chinese diplomats, who have shifted from a focus on narrow interests to a more collaborative effort in fostering a wider consensus.
This outreach is critical for Beijing. While it is better equipped to handle another Trump administration—given that many tech firms are now less dependent on U.S. imports—China’s economy remains vulnerable due to a severe property crisis.
China has directed much of its focus toward the Global South, with state news agency Xinhua commending the G20 for including the African Union as a member. Xinhua emphasized that the perspectives of the Global South should be “not merely heard but also translated into tangible influence.”
In his G20 address on Monday, Xi reaffirmed China’s commitment to “unilaterally opening our doors wider to the least developed countries,” highlighting China’s initiative to provide all such nations with “zero-tariff treatment for 100 percent of tariff lines.”
China is actively seeking to enhance its influence in various regions of the developing world, where the United States has struggled to compete, primarily due to its inability to match the substantial investments driven by China’s state-controlled economy.
Sunny Cheung, an associate fellow for China Studies at the Jamestown Foundation, noted that this strategic communication aims to position China as a champion of globalization and a critic of protectionist policies. This approach is particularly relevant as many nations in the Global South express concerns about the potential resurgence of arbitrary trade and tariff measures from the U.S., especially in light of Trump’s influence.
Xi’s statements are designed to portray China as a more stable, sensible, and importantly, a reciprocal partner, contrasting with the perceived unpredictability of the U.S.
Xi is heavily investing in the expansion of BRICS
In response to Trump’s commitment to impose tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese imports, a Reuters survey of economists indicated expectations of nearly 40% tariffs, which could reduce growth in China’s economy by as much as 1 percentage point.
Former Chinese diplomats have privately acknowledged that developing nations may not compensate for this economic impact. Nevertheless, Xi is heavily investing in the expansion of BRICS and improving relations with Asian neighbors, including India, Japan, and Australia.
European nations, also facing tariff threats from Trump, have sought to adopt a conciliatory approach in their recent discussions with Xi.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Berlin aims to facilitate a mediated resolution to the EU-China conflict regarding Chinese electric vehicles as swiftly as possible during his discussions with Xi.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed optimism during the first meeting between the leaders of the two nations since 2018, indicating his desire to collaborate with Beijing on matters such as trade, the economy, and climate change, as well as to foster broader cooperation in science, technology, health, and education.
Shen Dingli, an international relations expert from Shanghai, remarked that European allies of the U.S. would not fully “embrace” China if Trump’s protectionist measures were directed at them, although he noted that there would likely be increased cooperation.
Limits of outreach
Diplomats have observed a shift in China’s approach at international forums, with Chinese officials engaging in a broader range of issues. A Brazilian diplomat noted, “China has historically been more reserved, focusing solely on its core interests.” He added, “They appear to be recognizing that greater engagement is necessary. Building economic strength alone is insufficient; diplomacy is crucial for their interests and the global role they aspire to.”
However, some analysts argue that China’s outreach does not eliminate the existing tensions with other nations that were absent during Trump’s initial presidency, suggesting that his potential return is unlikely to result in a complete reshaping of the geopolitical landscape.
Western nations have consistently criticized China for engaging in unfair trade practices, arguing that its government support for manufacturers, combined with low domestic demand, results in an oversupply of Chinese goods in global markets.
China’s diplomatic efforts may also face challenges in its neighboring regions, where tensions have escalated with the Philippines and other countries over territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing, expressed doubt that a potential return of Trump would enhance China’s negotiating power with the EU and other U.S. allies, especially given the ongoing conflicts related to Ukraine, Taiwan, and other areas.
“China certainly aims to strengthen its relations with the EU and key powers, but it seeks to do so without incurring significant costs,” Shi noted.
This implies that China is unlikely to make substantial concessions regarding trade, human rights, and territorial issues, regardless of Trump’s presence, which ultimately hinders the possibility of a significant and enduring rapprochement.
Additionally, Shi pointed out that China’s capacity to invest in and benefit from expensive infrastructure projects in the Global South is limited due to its struggling economy.
Experts also highlight a growing apprehension among like-minded nations regarding China’s increasing influence, citing Brazil’s decision to refrain from participating in Xi’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative as an example.
“Brazil is wary of its relationship with China, particularly concerning which nation holds the dominant position, and it seeks a more equitable trade relationship that offers greater value for Brazil,” stated Robert Evan Ellis, a professor at the U.S. Army War College.
