Russian forces engage the remaining Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region

On Sunday, Russian officials reported that efforts were underway to expel the remaining Ukrainian soldiers from western Russia, following a seven-month incursion by Ukraine aimed at diverting Moscow’s military focus, securing leverage, and provoking President Vladimir Putin.

In a significant development in the ongoing three-year conflict, Ukrainian forces launched a major offensive last August, breaching Russia’s western border in Kursk. This marked the most substantial assault on Russian territory since the Nazi invasion in 1941.

However, a rapid counteroffensive this month has diminished Ukrainian control to approximately 110 square kilometers (42 square miles), a sharp decline from the over 1,368 square kilometers (528 square miles) reported by Kyiv last year, as indicated by open-source mapping data.

Yuri Podolyaka, a prominent pro-Russian military commentator, noted that Russian forces had managed to push Ukrainian troops back to the border in certain regions, although fierce fighting continued, with Ukrainian forces resisting during their withdrawal.

Battlefield maps from both sides revealed two clusters of Ukrainian troops on the Russian side of the Kursk border, with Russia indicating that it was in the process of clearing numerous mines in the vicinity.

Following a public request from U.S. President Donald Trump last week to protect the “surrounded” Ukrainian soldiers, Putin stated on Friday that Russia would ensure the safety of Ukrainian troops in the area if they chose to surrender.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy responded on Saturday, asserting that his forces were not encircled but raised concerns about a potential new Russian offensive targeting Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region, which borders Kursk. The influential pro-Russian military blogger, Two Majors, remarked that the territorial gains made by Russian forces had enabled them to pose a threat to Sumy, while also noting that Ukrainian forces had been reinforcing their defenses in that area for some time.

Putin has accused Ukrainian forces of committing atrocities against civilians in Kursk, a claim that Kyiv refutes. Ukraine asserts that approximately 11,000 North Korean soldiers are engaged alongside Russian troops in Kursk, although both Russia and North Korea have not provided any specifics regarding their presence.

The intense conflict in the Kursk region has influenced Trump’s efforts to halt what he describes as a “bloodbath” war that risks escalating into World War Three.

CEASEFIRE?

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the conflict has resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties, displaced millions, devastated towns, and sparked the most significant confrontation between Moscow and the West in decades. On Tuesday, the U.S. agreed to resume military assistance and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after Kyiv expressed its willingness to back Washington’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.

On Thursday, Putin indicated that Russia supports the ceasefire proposal in principle, but emphasized that hostilities cannot be suspended until several key conditions are established or clarified. He has consistently stated his readiness to discuss peace, contingent upon Ukraine’s commitment to renounce NATO membership and Russia’s retention of all territories it claims in Ukraine, including areas it does not currently control.

The invasion has come at a significant cost to Russia. U.S. intelligence estimates suggest that over 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured, according to a 2023 assessment. Additionally, the economy has been severely impacted by unprecedented defense spending and the most stringent Western sanctions ever imposed. Ukraine has also suffered similar losses, with more than 100,000 troops reported killed or injured based on leaked U.S. intelligence estimates. Its economy has been devastated, with one-fifth of its territory under Russian control, and despite receiving over $260 billion in Western aid, Kyiv has struggled to overcome Russian forces. Neither side currently discloses updated casualty figures for the ongoing conflict.