China is expected to conduct military exercises this week in proximity to Taiwan, with Taiwanese officials suggesting that the upcoming National Day address by President Lai Ching-te may serve as a justification for these actions aimed at compelling the island to acknowledge Beijing’s sovereignty claims.

In May, China initiated “punishment” drills around Taiwan shortly after Lai’s inauguration, which Beijing characterized as a reaction to “separatist activities.” These exercises involved the deployment of heavily armed warplanes and simulated attacks, while state media criticized the newly sworn-in Lai.

The May exercises, named “Joint Sword – 2024A,” raised alarms in various capitals, including Washington.

Lai is scheduled to deliver a significant speech on October 10 during a major celebration in front of the presidential office in Taipei, commemorating the 113th anniversary of the Republic of China, Taiwan’s official designation.

A senior security official in Taiwan indicated, “Our assessment suggests that regardless of what Lai articulates on October 10, there is a possibility they will label ongoing exercises as Joint Sword – 2024B.” This conclusion is based on intelligence collected by Taiwan and evaluations of China’s anticipated actions.

The official remarked, “It is likely to serve as a pretext.”

An internal security memo, reviewed by Reuters, indicates that Taiwanese authorities suspect Beijing may attribute the potential drills to Lai’s “provocation” during his speech.

The memo noted that China has “consistently sought to test the boundaries of various nations, maximizing its grey-zone operations,” referring to military maneuvers that fall short of actual conflict but are intended to test and exert pressure on other military forces.

Neither Taiwan’s nor China’s defense ministries provided immediate comments, and the Taiwan Affairs Office also did not respond promptly to inquiries.